The Paris pledges and the energy-water-land nexus in Latin America: Exploring implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions
The Paris pledges and the energy-water-land nexus in Latin America: Exploring implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0215013
复制
发表时间：
2019-04-16
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
McJeon, Haewon C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Da Silva, Silvia R. Santos;Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando;McJeon, Haewon C.
在 2015 年《巴黎协定》中，世界各国承诺减排（国家自主贡献 - NDC），以避免气候变化的威胁，并同意定期审查这些承诺以增强其雄心水平。先前的研究主要从国家自主贡献对限制全球变暖的隐含贡献、对能源部门或缓解成本的影响方面进行了分析。然而，关于国家自主贡献对各国能源-水土地关系资源系统影响的理解，文献中存在空白。本文通过采用全球变化评估模型，在拉丁美洲区域背景下探讨了这个角度，这是一种最先进的综合评估模型，能够代表联系部门和缓解政策之间关键的全系统相互作用。通过重点关注巴西、墨西哥、阿根廷和哥伦比亚，我们强调了对国家水需求的潜在影响，具体取决于各国执行能源相关减排的战略及其与土地部门的相互作用。尽管巴黎承诺对每个国家的影响不同，但作物和生物质灌溉以及发电用水需求的增加是国家数据中心政策下可能出现的潜在权衡。因此，本研究强调需要在即将到来的国家自主贡献更新周期中考虑联系资源规划框架（称为“联系方法”），作为促进可持续发展的一种手段。
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations worldwide pledged emissions reductions (Nationally Determined Contributions-NDCs) to avert the threat of climate change, and agreed to periodically review these pledges to strengthen their level of ambition. Previous studies have analyzed NDCs largely in terms of their implied contribution to limit global warming, their implications on the energy sector or on mitigation costs. Nevertheless, a gap in the literature exists regarding the understanding of implications of the NDCs on countries' Energy-Water Land nexus resource systems. The present paper explores this angle within the regional context of Latin America by employing the Global Change Assessment Model, a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model capable of representing key system-wide interactions among nexus sectors and mitigation policies. By focusing on Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia, we stress potential implications on national-level water demands depending on countries' strategies to enforce energy-related emissions reductions and their interplays with the land sector. Despite the differential implications of the Paris pledges on each country, increased water demands for crop and biomass irrigation and for electricity generation stand out as potential trade-offs that may emerge under the NDC policy. Hence, this study underscores the need of considering a nexus resource planning framework (known as "Nexus Approach") in the forthcoming NDCs updating cycles as a mean to contribute toward sustainable development.