More deaths from pancreatic cancer than breast cancer in the EU by 2017
More deaths from pancreatic cancer than breast cancer in the EU by 2017
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DOI：
10.1080/0284186x.2016.1197419
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Bray, F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ferlay, J.;Partensky, C.;Bray, F.
简介：目前在欧盟男性和女性中，胰腺癌的死亡人数均低于女性乳腺癌。近几十年来，许多高收入欧盟国家的乳腺癌死亡率一直在下降，但相比之下，胰腺癌的死亡率要么稳定，要么适度上升。有必要对两者的短期未来发生率进行比较分析。方法：我们提取了 2001-2010 年期间欧盟 28 个国家中按性别划分的胰腺癌和乳腺癌的年度死亡人数以及面临风险的人口。我们拟合了癌症和性别特定的时间线性回归模型，并预测了 2011-2025 年胰腺癌和乳腺癌的死亡人数。结果：我们估计，到 2017 年，欧盟因胰腺癌死亡的人数（每年 91 500 人）将多于乳腺癌（91 000 人）。到 2025 年，胰腺癌死亡人数预计将增加 25%（分别为 111500 人和 90000 人）。胰腺癌可能成为欧盟继肺癌和结直肠癌之后的第三大癌症死亡原因。结论：尽管在不久的将来可能会出现一些策略，这将增强改善胰腺癌非常差的五年生存率的前景，但仍需要协调努力，以减少欧盟境内可预见的高死亡率疾病负担。
Introduction: Pancreatic cancer currently ranks below female breast cancer in terms of the number of deaths in both males and females in the EU. While breast cancer mortality rates have been declining in many higher income EU countries during recent decades, rates of pancreatic cancer in contrast are either stable or moderately increasing; a comparative analysis of the short-term future rates of both is warranted.Methods: We extracted the annual number of deaths from cancers of the pancreas and breast by gender together with population at risk in each of 28 countries of the EU for the period 2001-2010. We fitted cancer- and gender-specific time-linear regression models and predicted deaths from pancreatic and breast cancer mortality for the years 2011-2025.Results: We estimated that by the year 2017 more deaths from pancreatic cancer will occur (91 500 annual deaths) than breast cancer (91000) in the EU. By 2025, deaths from cancer of the pancreas are predicted to be 25% higher (111500 and 90000, respectively). Pancreatic cancer may become the third leading cause of death from cancer in the EU after lung and colorectal cancers.Conclusion: Although strategies may emerge in the near future that will enhance the prospects of improving the very poor five-year survival from pancreatic cancer, coordinated efforts are necessary to reduce the foreseeable high mortality burden of disease within the EU.