Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: Convective Storm Nowcasting
Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: Convective Storm Nowcasting
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悉尼 2000 年预报示范项目：对流风暴临近预报
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Seed
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
James W. Wilson;E. Ebert;T. Saxen;R. Roberts;C. Mueller;M. Sleigh;C. Pierce;A. Seed
摘要 在2000年悉尼预报示范项目（FDP）期间可用的临近预报系统中，有五个被选作评估对象。这些来自美国、英国和澳大利亚的系统能够对对流风暴的位置进行临近预报，并且除了一个系统外，都能预报其强度。从为期3个月的FDP中选取了6个最重要的对流风暴案例，以评估这些最先进的临近预报系统的性能，这些系统使用多种方法外推风暴，包括单体和区域追踪、模式风以及探空风。其中三个系统有预报风暴起始和发展的能力。对30分钟和60分钟的临近预报进行了评估，结果发现，即使是在如此短的时间段内，仅使用外推的系统的技巧往往也非常低。考虑到差异运动的外推技术表现略好，因为高影响风暴的运动往往与周围的……不同。
Abstract Five of the nowcasting systems that were available during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) were selected for evaluation. These systems, from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, had the capability to nowcast the location and, with one exception, the intensity of convective storms. Six of the most significant convective storm cases from the 3-month FDP were selected for evaluating the performance of these state-of-the-art nowcasting systems, which extrapolated storms using a variety of methods, including cell and area tracking, model winds, and sounding winds. Three of the systems had the ability to forecast the initiation and growth of storms. Nowcasts for 30 and 60 min were evaluated, and it was found that even for such short time periods the skill of the extrapolation-only systems was often very low. Extrapolation techniques that allowed for differential motion performed slightly better, since high-impact storms often have motions different than surrounding ...