Evidence of a relation between El NIno and QBO, and for an El Nino in 1991–92
Evidence of a relation between El NIno and QBO, and for an El Nino in 1991–92
复制标题
厄尔尼诺现象与 QBO 之间关系以及 1991-92 年厄尔尼诺现象的证据
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
1992
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Angell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Angell
研究了厄尔尼诺现象与赤道低平流层准两年振荡(QBO)联系的可能性。根据1954-1991年新加坡50毫巴纬向风的9次厄尔尼诺和16次准两年变化，赤道东太平洋海表温度(SST)在QBO东风极大之前和之后的4-5个季节中，一个季节平均增温近0.5℃，但这种温度差异不具有统计学意义。由于这些振荡的周期不同(QBO平均为2.5年，El Nino平均约为4.5年)，不可能每个QBO东风极大值都有厄尔尼诺现象，也就是说，厄尔尼诺现象和QBO东风极大值之间的任何关系有时都必须“跳一拍”。本文给出了这种“跳跃”模式的证据，即厄尔尼诺现象与QBO东风极大值有关，除非与前一东风极大值有关的厄尔尼诺现象是主要的和/或海温极大值在前一东风极大值之后的几个季节。根据这种模式，1989年或1990年不会出现厄尔尼诺现象(因为1987年的厄尔尼诺现象是一次主要的厄尔尼诺现象)，但预计在1991年或1992年，与预计将出现在1992年北部夏季的QBO东风最大值有关。与以前的“跳跃”相比，厄尔尼诺现象最有可能出现在下一次东风最大值之前，或1991年底。因为它是在1990年温暖事件中止之后发生的，所以它可能不会是一次重大的厄尔尼诺现象。
The possibility of a relation between El Nino and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in equatorial low stratosphere is investigated. Based on the 9 El Ninos and 16 quasi-biennial variations in 50 mb zonal wind at Singapore between 1954 and 1991, the sea-surface temperature (SST) in eastern equatorial Pacific has averaged nearly 0.5°C warmer one season after QBO east-wind maximum than 4–5 seasons before and after this maximum, but this difference in temperature is not statistically significant. Because of the difference in period of these oscillations (2 1/4 years on average in the case of the QBO, about 4 1/2 years on average in the case of El Nino), there can not be an El Nino associated with every QBO east-wind maximum, i.e., any relation between El Nino and QBO east-wind maximum has to “skip a beat” on occasion. This paper presents evidence for a pattern in this “skip”, such that an El Nino is associated with a QBO east-wind maximum except when the El Nino associated with the previous east-wind maximum was a major one and/or the SST maximum followed the previous east-wind maximum by a few seasons. On the basis of this pattern an El Nino would not have been expected in 1989 or 1990 (because the El Nino of 1987 was a major one) but would be expected in 1991 or 1992 in association with the QBO east-wind maximum projected to occur in the northern summer of 1992. Comparison with earlier “skips” shows that an El Nino would be most likely before the next east-wind maximum, or at the end of 1991. Because it would follow the aborted warm event of 1990, it probably would not be a major El Nino.