An Investigation Into the Decision Analysis of Design Process Decisions
An Investigation Into the Decision Analysis of Design Process Decisions
复制标题
设计过程决策的决策分析研究
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Paredis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Stephanie C. Thompson;C. Paredis
尽管基于决策的设计 (DBD) 的最新工作认识到需要从企业角度考虑，其中预期利润是效用的主要驱动因素，但对于 DBD 文献中的绝大多数贡献，问题表述的重点完全集中在设计工件上。这种 DBD 问题的表述范围太窄，因为忽略了设计和开发阶段的资源使用，使得无法考虑设计工件的质量和设计过程的成本之间的权衡。我们的目标是通过研究决策分析的设计行为，建立一个新的 DBD 视角，更准确地表示企业环境中考虑的权衡。作为建立这一新视角的第一步，本文介绍并分析了一个简单的压力容器材料选择示例问题。尽管做出了一些简化的假设，但这项工作的目的是定性地探讨放宽 DBD 先前工作中隐含的一些假设的影响，特别是忽略设计阶段成本的假设以及特定分析的价值独立于从后续分析中获取附加信息的能力的假设。这项工作证实，只有当成本低、质量高并且两个概念的预测效用重叠显着时才值得进行分析。这些见解还与信息经济学的相关工作进行了比较。我们表明，当可以顺序使用多个信息源时，设计过程决策的决策分析提供了更全面的问题模型。
Although recent work in decision-based design (DBD) recognizes the need for an enterprise perspective in which the expected profit is the primary driver of utility, for the overwhelming majority of contributions in the DBD literature, the emphasis in the problem formulation is exclusively on the design artifact. This formulation of DBD problems is too narrow in scope, because the use of resources during the design and development phase is overlooked, making it impossible to consider the tradeoffs between the quality of the design artifact and the cost of the design process. We aim to establish a new DBD perspective that more accurately represents the tradeoffs under consideration in an enterprise context by studying the design actions with decision analysis. As a first step toward establishing this new perspective, a simple example problem of material selection for a pressure vessel is introduced and analyzed in this paper. Although several simplifying assumptions are made, the intent of this work is to qualitatively explore the impact of relaxing some of the assumptions implicitly made in previous work in DBD, specifically the assumption of ignoring the costs of the design phase and the assumption that the value of a particular analysis is independent of the ability to gain additional information from subsequent analyses. This work confirms that an analysis is worth performing only when the cost is low, the quality is high, and the overlap in the predicted utility of the two concepts is significant. These insights are also compared with the related work in information economics. We show that the decision analysis of design process decisions provides a more comprehensive model of the problem when multiple information sources can sequentially be used.