Forest harvesting is associated with increased landslide activity during an extreme rainstorm on Vancouver Island, Canada
Forest harvesting is associated with increased landslide activity during an extreme rainstorm on Vancouver Island, Canada
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加拿大温哥华岛极端暴雨期间森林采伐与山体滑坡活动增加有关
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Brenning
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jason Goetz;R. Guthrie;A. Brenning
抽象的。在山区安全开展森林活动需要有效的发展规划，以减轻滑坡造成的危害。加拿大的不列颠哥伦比亚省在过去20年中实施了滑坡风险管理政策，旨在减少林业对滑坡的影响。因此，需要评估木材采伐地点对地形稳定性的潜在或现有影响。滑坡敏感性统计模型可以通过在地理上突出潜在的危险区域来加强这一评价。此外，这些统计模型也可以提高我们对区域滑坡控制因素的认识。本研究的目的是探讨森林采伐活动，地形，降水和地质在2006年11月的极端降雨事件期间发起的山体滑坡的区域影响温哥华岛，不列颠哥伦比亚省。这些影响进行了分析，与非参数统计方法，广义加性模型（GAM）。虽然地形是滑坡发生的最强预测因子，但低密度森林被解释为再生区和靠近森林服务道路，与滑坡发生几率增加6至9倍有关，同时考虑到其他环境混杂因素。这一结果突出了继续进行适当的滑坡风险管理，以控制森林做法对滑坡发生的影响的重要性。
Abstract. Safe operations of forest practices in mountainous regions require effective development planning to mitigate hazards posed by landslides. British Columbia, Canada, has for the past 2 decades implemented landslide risk management policies aimed at reducing the impacts of the forestry industry on landslides. Consequently, it is required that timber harvesting sites be evaluated for their potential or existing impacts on terrain stability. Statistical landslide susceptibility modelling can enhance this evaluation by geographically highlighting potential hazardous areas. In addition, these statistical models can also improve our understanding of regional landslide controlling factors. The purpose of this research was to explore the regional effects of forest harvesting activities, topography, precipitation and geology on landslides initiated during an extreme rainfall event in November 2006 on Vancouver Island, British Columbia. These effects were analyzed with a nonparametric statistical method, the generalized additive model (GAM). Although topography was the strongest predictor of landslide initiation, low density forest interpreted as regrowth areas and proximity to forest service roads were jointly associated with a 6- to 9-fold increase in the odds of landslide initiation, while accounting for other environmental confounders. This result highlights the importance of continuing proper landslide risk management to control the effects of forest practices on landslide initiation.