Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability
Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability
复制标题
年际至十年间气候可预测性的案例研究
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Sutton
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Hermanson;R. Sutton
研究了海洋和气候变量的可预测性，使用了一种基于完美模型的案例研究方法，该方法认识到可预测性取决于初始气候状态。与之前的研究一致，大尺度海洋变量显示出数年或更长时间的可预测性；相比之下，气候变量的可预测性一般最多限制在2年。不同地区、不同变量和不同初值季节出现的可预报气候信号表明，可预报性对初始状态具有很高的敏感性。气候变量在第二年的可预测性尤其令人感兴趣，因为这超出了通常被认为是季节性可预测性极限的时间尺度。对于不同的初始条件，第二年的可预报性存在于：北美东南部(冬季)和西欧(冬季和夏季)的温度，以及印度(夏季季风)和热带南大西洋的降水。第二年的可预测性要么来自大尺度海表面温度(SST)和相关海洋热含量异常的持续，特别是在北大西洋和南大洋等区域，要么来自涉及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)动力学的机制。
The predictability of ocean and climate variables is investigated, using a perfect model-based case study approach that recognises that predictability is dependent on the initial climate state. In line with previous studies, large scale ocean variables show predictability for several years or more; by contrast, the predictability of climate variables is generally limited to 2 years at most. That predictability shows high sensitivity to the initial state is demonstrated by predictable climate signals arising in different regions, variables and seasons for different initial conditions. The predictability of climate variables in the second year is of particular interest, because this is beyond the timescale that is usually considered to be the limit of seasonal predictability. For different initial conditions, second year predictability is found in: temperatures in southeastern North America (winter) and western Europe (winter and summer), and precipitation in India (summer monsoon) and in the tropical South Atlantic. Second year predictability arises either from persistence of large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) and related ocean heat content anomalies, particularly in regions such as the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, or from mechanisms that involve El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics.