Cause-specific mortality and the extended effects of particulate pollution and temperature exposure.
Cause-specific mortality and the extended effects of particulate pollution and temperature exposure.
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp.6451
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发表时间：
2004-02
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Clancy, Luke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Goodman, Patrick G;Dockery, Douglas W;Clancy, Luke
在过去的十年中，空气污染暴露研究的重点是急性(天)或长期(年)影响。我们提出了颗粒物污染和温度的中期(几周到几个月)暴露影响的分析。在爱尔兰都柏林，我们使用暴露后40天内温度和颗粒物空气污染同时存在的多项式分布滞后模型，评估了颗粒物污染(黑烟)和温度与爱尔兰都柏林17年来年龄标准化每日死亡率的关系。当只考虑急性影响(3天平均值)时，我们发现黑烟浓度每增加10微克/立方米，总死亡率就增加0.4%。当考虑到暴露后40天内的死亡人数时，我们发现增加了1.1%。对于呼吸系统死亡率，急性暴露的估计影响为0.9%，但长期随访的影响为3.6%。我们发现，当前气温每升高1摄氏度，总死亡率就会增加0.4%，而在接下来的40天里，气温每降低1摄氏度，死亡率就会增加2.6%。对于温度和污染，对心血管死亡率的影响最大的是立即观察到的，而呼吸系统死亡率被推迟并分布在几周内。这些影响是其他研究报告的急性影响的两到三倍，接近长期生存研究报告的影响。这一分析表明，关于空气污染的严重影响的研究低估了温度和颗粒性空气污染对死亡率的总体影响。
Air pollution exposure studies in the past decade have focused on acute (days) or long-term (years) effects. We present an analysis of medium-term (weeks to months) exposure effects of particulate pollution and temperature. We assessed the associations of particulate pollution (black smoke) and temperature with age-standardized daily mortality rates over 17 years in Dublin, Ireland, using a polynomial distributed lag model of both temperature and particulate air pollution simultaneously through 40 days after exposure. When only acute effects (3-day mean) were considered, we found total mortality increased by 0.4% for each 10-microg/m3 increase in black smoke concentration. When deaths in the 40 days after exposure were considered, we found a 1.1% increase. For respiratory mortality, the estimated effect was 0.9% for acute exposures, but 3.6% for the extended follow-up. We found each increase in current-day temperature by 1 degree C was associated with a 0.4% increase in total mortality, whereas each decrease of 1 degree C was associated with a 2.6% increase in mortality in the following 40 days. For both temperature and pollution, the largest effects on cardiovascular mortality were observed immediately, whereas respiratory mortality was delayed and distributed over several weeks. These effects were two to three times greater than the acute effects reported in other studies, and approach the effects reported in longer-term survival studies. This analysis suggests that studies on the acute effects of air pollution have underestimated the total effects of temperature and particulate air pollution on mortality.