Human reliability assessment during offshore emergency conditions
Human reliability assessment during offshore emergency conditions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ssci.2013.04.001
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发表时间：
2013-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Imtiaz, Syed
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Musharraf, Mashrura;Hassan, Junaid;Imtiaz, Syed
本文提出了一种定量的方法，在海上环境中的应急条件下的人的可靠性分析（HRA）。由于缺乏紧急情况下的人因失误数据，大多数可用的HRA方法是基于专家判断技术。专家判断存在不确定性和不完全性，这是现有技术所没有考虑的。此外，传统的方法对人的因素和相关行动的独立性作了不切实际的假设。本文的重点是解决与专家的判断与证据理论的不确定性处理的问题，并表示使用贝叶斯网络（BN）的方法，人的因素和相关的行动之间的依赖关系。在不同阶段的紧急情况下，人的错误概率（HEP），然后使用贝叶斯方法与证据理论方法相结合的评估。为了了解所提出的方法的适用性，结果进行了比较与分析方法：成功可能性指数方法（SLIM）。比较研究表明，该方法是有效的评估人为错误的可能性。除了简单之外，它还具有额外的功能，例如在新信息可用时进行更新，并表示复杂的交互。使用所提出的方法将提供一个有效的机制，人的可靠性评估在危险作业。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
This paper presents a quantitative approach to Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) during emergency conditions in an offshore environment. Due to the lack of human error data for emergency conditions most of the available HRA methodologies are based on expert judgment techniques. Expert judgment suffers from uncertainty and incompleteness due to partial ignorance, which is not considered in available techniques. Furthermore, traditional approaches suffer from unrealistic assumptions regarding the independence of the human factors and associated actions. The focus of this paper is to address the issue of handling uncertainty associated with expert judgments with evidence theory and to represent the dependency among the human factors and associated actions using a Bayesian Network (BN) approach. The Human Error Probability (HEP) during different phases of an emergency is then assessed using a Bayesian approach integrated with an evidence theory approach. To understand the applicability of the proposed approach, results are compared with an analytical approach: Success Likelihood Index Methodology (SLIM). The comparative study demonstrates that the proposed approach is effective in assessing human error likelihood. In addition to being simple, it possesses additional capability, such as updating as new information becomes available and representing complex interaction. Use of the proposed method would provide an effective mechanism of human reliability assessment in hazardous operations. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.