Explaining regional differences in mortality during the first wave of Covid-19 in Italy
Explaining regional differences in mortality during the first wave of Covid-19 in Italy
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DOI：
10.1080/00324728.2021.1984551
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发表时间：
2021-11-10
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Camarda, Carlo Giovanni
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Basellini, Ugofilippo;Camarda, Carlo Giovanni
意大利受到 Covid-19 大流行的严重打击，2020 年 2 月至 7 月期间有超过 35,000 人因 Covid-19 死亡。在第一波疫情期间，该病毒在全国范围内传播不均匀，北部地区出现了更多的病例和死亡。我们调查了第一波疫情期间导致病毒产生不同区域影响的人口和社会经济因素。使用广义加性混合模型，我们发现地区层面的Covid-19死亡率与代际同居程度、人均重症监护病房床位数量以及疫情爆发延迟呈负相关。相反，我们没有发现最近文献中强调的几个变量之间存在很强的关联，例如人口密度或老年人或至少患有一种慢性病的人口比例。我们的结果强调了针对大流行研究的特定背景分析的重要性。
Italy was hit harshly by the Covid-19 pandemic, registering more than 35,000 Covid-19 deaths between February and July 2020. During this first wave of the epidemic, the virus spread unequally across the country, with northern regions witnessing more cases and deaths. We investigate demographic and socio-economic factors contributing to the diverse regional impact of the virus during the first wave. Using generalized additive mixed models, we find that Covid-19 mortality at regional level is negatively associated with the degree of intergenerational co-residence, number of intensive care unit beds per capita, and delay in the outbreak of the epidemic. Conversely, we do not find strong associations for several variables highlighted in recent literature, such as population density or the share of the population who are older or have at least one chronic disease. Our results underscore the importance of context-specific analysis for the study of a pandemic.