Climate Change, Heat Stress, and U.S. Dairy Production
Climate Change, Heat Stress, and U.S. Dairy Production
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气候变化、热应激和美国乳制品生产
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2506668
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
David Marquardt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Key;S. Sneeringer;David Marquardt
在美国，气候变化可能会增加每日平均气温和热浪的频率，这可能会减少动物的肉和奶产量。畜牧业生产者用来缓解热应激的方法，包括对动物管理或圈养的修改，往往会增加生产成本和资本支出。奶牛对热应激特别敏感，据估计，奶牛业承担了畜牧业目前热应激成本的一半以上。在这份报告中，我们使用操作层面的经济数据，再加上精细的气候数据，以估计当地的热环境如何影响美国乳品厂在给定的投入水平下生产产出的有效性。我们利用这些信息来估计2030年因气候变化引起的热应激而导致的牛奶产量的潜在下降。对于四种气候模型情景，结果表明，在未来20年中，与热应力相关的产量将出现适度下降，下降幅度最大的是南方。
In the United States, climate change is likely to increase average daily temperatures and the frequency of heat waves, which can reduce meat and milk production in animals. Methods that livestock producers use to mitigate thermal stress—including modifications to animal management or housing—tend to increase production costs and capital expenditures. Dairy cows are particularly sensitive to heat stress, and the dairy sector has been estimated to bear over half of the costs of current heat stress to the livestock industry. In this report, we use operation-level economic data coupled with finely scaled climate data to estimate how the local thermal environment affects U.S. dairies’ effectiveness at producing outputs with a given level of inputs. We use this information to estimate the potential decline in milk production in 2030 resulting from climate change-induced heat stress. For four climate model scenarios, the results indicate modest heat stress-related production declines over the next 20 years, with the largest declines occurring in the South.