Validating model output in the absence of ground truth data: A COVID-19 case study using the Simulator of Infectious Disease Dynamics in North Carolina (SIDD-NC) model.
Validating model output in the absence of ground truth data: A COVID-19 case study using the Simulator of Infectious Disease Dynamics in North Carolina (SIDD-NC) model.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.healthplace.2023.103065
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发表时间：
2023-09
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Woodburn, Meg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Woodul, Rachel L.;Delamater, Paul L.;Woodburn, Meg
随着COVID-19疫情的发展，已开发出各种模型来预测疫情的变化并评估干预策略。在这项研究中，我们验证了传染病动力学模拟器在北卡罗来纳州（SIDD-NC）模型对代理地面实况感染数据集的合奏。我们使用斯皮尔曼秩相关、RMSE和百分比RMSE在州和县一级评估SIDD-NC的性能。我们对2020年3月至2020年11月期间以及更短的时间增量进行了分析，以评估大流行曲线的重建以及SARS-CoV-2在人群中的日常传播。我们发现，SIDD-NC对集合中的数据集表现良好，生成了在空间和时间上都鲁棒的感染估计。
As the COVID-19 pandemic has progressed, various models have been developed to forecast changes in the outbreak and assess intervention strategies. In this study we validate the Simulator of Infectious Disease Dynamics in North Carolina (SIDD-NC) model against an ensemble of proxy-ground truth infections datasets. We assess the performance of SIDD-NC using Spearman Rank Correlation, RMSE, and percent RMSE at a state and county level. We conduct the analysis for the period of March 2020 through November 2020 as well as in shorter time increments to assess both the recreation of the pandemic curve as well as day-to-day transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the population. We find that SIDD-NC performs well against the datasets in the ensemble, generating an estimate of infections that is robust both spatially and temporally.
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影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Grefenstette JJ;Brown ST;Rosenfeld R;DePasse J;Stone NT;Cooley PC;Wheaton WD;Fyshe A;Galloway DD;Sriram A;Guclu H;Abraham T;Burke DS
通讯作者：
Burke DS
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.1464
发表时间：
2020-12
期刊：
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Meyerowitz-Katz G;Merone L
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
6.3
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
2.7
作者：
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通讯作者：
Akabayashi, Akira
DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3
发表时间：
2021-05-14
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
--
作者：
Borchering RK;Viboud C;Howerton E;Smith CP;Truelove S;Runge MC;Reich NG;Contamin L;Levander J;Salerno J;van Panhuis W;Kinsey M;Tallaksen K;Obrecht RF;Asher L;Costello C;Kelbaugh M;Wilson S;Shin L;Gallagher ME;Mullany LC;Rainwater-Lovett K;Lemaitre JC;Dent J;Grantz KH;Kaminsky J;Lauer SA;Lee EC;Meredith HR;Perez-Saez J;Keegan LT;Karlen D;Chinazzi M;Davis JT;Mu K;Xiong X;Pastore Y Piontti A;Vespignani A;Srivastava A;Porebski P;Venkatramanan S;Adiga A;Lewis B;Klahn B;Outten J;Schlitt J;Corbett P;Telionis PA;Wang L;Peddireddy AS;Hurt B;Chen J;Vullikanti A;Marathe M;Healy JM;Slayton RB;Biggerstaff M;Johansson MA;Shea K;Lessler J
通讯作者：
Lessler J