Interactions between reducing CO2 emissions, CO2 removal and solar radiation management.
Interactions between reducing CO2 emissions, CO2 removal and solar radiation management.
复制标题
减少二氧化碳排放、二氧化碳去除和太阳辐射管理之间的相互作用。
DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2012.0188
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Vaughan NE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Vaughan NE
我们使用一个简单的碳循环-气候模型来研究二氧化碳减排、二氧化碳去除（CDR）和太阳辐射管理（SRM）的理想化情景之间的相互作用。两种CO2排放轨迹的差异在于减缓活动的开始延迟了15年。SRM被模拟为入射太阳辐射的减少，完全补偿了由于大气CO2浓度变化引起的辐射强迫。两种CDR情景通过植树造林（添加到植被和土壤中）或通过生物能源与碳捕获和储存（从系统中去除）去除300 PgC或1000 PgC。我们的研究结果表明，延迟减缓活动的开始可能是非常昂贵的CDR活动需要以后限制大气CO2浓度（和相应的全球变暖）到一个给定的水平。在减少大气CO2浓度方面，避免减缓活动开始延迟15年比除最大类型的CDR干预措施外的所有措施都更有效。SRM和CDR共同应用的效果是加和的，这对大气CO2浓度表现得最为明显。SRM导致大气CO2浓度的显着降低，由于增加了陆地生物圈，特别是土壤的碳储存。然而，SRM必须保持许多世纪，以避免温度的快速上升和大气中CO2浓度的相应增加，由于从土地上损失的碳。
We use a simple carbon cycle–climate model to investigate the interactions between a selection of idealized scenarios of mitigated carbon dioxide emissions, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM). Two CO2emissions trajectories differ by a 15-year delay in the start of mitigation activity. SRM is modelled as a reduction in incoming solar radiation that fully compensates the radiative forcing due to changes in atmospheric CO2concentration. Two CDR scenarios remove 300 PgC by afforestation (added to vegetation and soil) or 1000 PgC by bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (removed from system). Our results show that delaying the start of mitigation activity could be very costly in terms of the CDR activity needed later to limit atmospheric CO2concentration (and corresponding global warming) to a given level. Avoiding a 15-year delay in the start of mitigation activity is more effective at reducing atmospheric CO2concentrations than all but the maximum type of CDR interventions. The effects of applying SRM and CDR together are additive, and this shows most clearly for atmospheric CO2concentration. SRM causes a significant reduction in atmospheric CO2concentration due to increased carbon storage by the terrestrial biosphere, especially soils. However, SRM has to be maintained for many centuries to avoid rapid increases in temperature and corresponding increases in atmospheric CO2concentration due to loss of carbon from the land.