Which team will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup? A Bayesian approach for dummies
Which team will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup? A Bayesian approach for dummies
复制标题
哪支球队将赢得 2014 年 FIFA 世界杯？
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2396259
复制
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. C. Jiménez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andrés Ramírez Hassan;J. C. Jiménez
本文介绍了2014年国际足联世界杯的几次“事前”模拟演习。具体地说，我们使用基于共轭家族的基本贝叶斯方法来估计每个国家队晋级不同阶段的可能性。特别是，我们在第一轮使用范畴-Dirichlet模型，在随后的阶段使用Bernoulli-Beta模型。我们的框架的新颖性是通过使用投注赔率来得出先前分布的超参数。此外，我们还得到了每支球队夺冠概率的最大密度区间的后验分布。我们发现，巴西(19.95%)、德国(14.68%)、阿根廷(12.05%)和西班牙(6.2%)获得冠军的可能性最高。最后，我们通过模拟练习确定了一些投注机会。特别是，波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那是一个前景看好的国家，而澳大利亚的投注机会回报最低。
This paper presents several "ex ante" simulation exercises of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Specifically, we estimate the probabilities of each national team advancing to different stages, using a basic Bayesian approach based on conjugate families. In particular, we use the Categorical-Dirichlet model in the first round and the Bernoulli-Beta model in the following stages. The novelty of our framework is given by the use of betting odds to elicit the hyperparameters of prior distributions. Additionally, we obtain the posterior distributions with the Highest Density Intervals of the probability to being champion for each team. We find that Brazil (19.95%), Germany (14.68%), Argentina (12.05%), and Spain (6.2%) have the highest probabilities of being champion. Finally, we identify some betting opportunities with our simulation exercises. In particular, Bosnia & Herzegovina is a promising, whereas Australia shows the lowest betting opportunities return.