Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity
Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity
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DOI：
10.1093/icesjms/fsu172
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发表时间：
2015-03-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Cheung, William W. L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, Miranda C.;Cheung, William W. L.
物种分布模型是研究未来全球变化对生物多样性影响的重要工具。以往的研究表明，可变性引入到预测分布通过替代数据集和建模程序。然而，在全球范围内评估海洋地理变化的多模式方法仍然很少得到应用，特别是在海洋环境中。在这里，我们应用三种常用的SDM（AquaMaps，Maxent和动态生物气候包络模型）来评估全球海洋物种丰富度，入侵和灭绝强度变化的全球模式。我们使用每个SDM进行物种特定的分布变化预测，随后将其汇总，以计算一组802种海洋鱼类和无脊椎动物的变化指数。结果表明，在低排放和高排放气候变化情景下，物种和空间数据模型之间的平均极向纬度偏移分别为15.5和25.6 km十年（-1）。预测的分布变化导致高纬度地区的局部入侵强度热点，而局部入侵集中在赤道附近。具体来说，在10A度N和10A度S之间，我们预测，在气候变化排放情景下，平均每0.5A度纬度将有6.5个物种在当地灭绝。在北冰洋，每0.5A度纬度平均入侵2.0种，在南大洋，每0.5A度纬度平均入侵1.5种。这些平均的全球热点的入侵和局部灭绝强度是强大的不同的SDM使用，并符合高水平的协议。
Species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to explore the effects of future global changes in biodiversity. Previous studies show that variability is introduced into projected distributions through alternative datasets and modelling procedures. However, a multi-model approach to assess biogeographic shifts at the global scale is still rarely applied, particularly in the marine environment. Here, we apply three commonly used SDMs (AquaMaps, Maxent, and the Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model) to assess the global patterns of change in species richness, invasion, and extinction intensity in the world oceans. We make species-specific projections of distribution shift using each SDM, subsequently aggregating them to calculate indices of change across a set of 802 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates. Results indicate an average poleward latitudinal shift across species and SDMs at a rate of 15.5 and 25.6 km decade(-1) for a low and high emissions climate change scenario, respectively. Predicted distribution shifts resulted in hotspots of local invasion intensity in high latitude regions, while local extinctions were concentrated near the equator. Specifically, between 10A degrees N and 10A degrees S, we predicted that, on average, 6.5 species would become locally extinct per 0.5A degrees latitude under the climate change emissions scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Average invasions were predicted to be 2.0 species per 0.5A degrees latitude in the Arctic Ocean and 1.5 species per 0.5A degrees latitude in the Southern Ocean. These averaged global hotspots of invasion and local extinction intensity are robust to the different SDM used and coincide with high levels of agreement.