One-Health Simulation Modelling: A Case Study of Influenza Spread between Human and Swine Populations using NAADSM
One-Health Simulation Modelling: A Case Study of Influenza Spread between Human and Swine Populations using NAADSM
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DOI：
10.1111/tbed.12215
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发表时间：
2016-02-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Sanchez, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dorjee, S.;Revie, C. W.;Sanchez, J.
包括pH 1 N1 2009和H5 N1在内的人畜共患甲型流感病毒的传播继续对动物和人类构成持续威胁。最近，一种H3 N2变种从猪传播到人，并在有限数量的人与人之间传播。因此，本研究调查了pH 1 N1 2009病毒在猪-人界面的传播动力学的一系列场景，同时考虑了不同百分比的猪工作人员最初免疫。此外，NAADSM（北美动物疾病传播模型）应用作为一个健康模拟模型的可行性进行了评估。研究人群包括加拿大安大略一个县的488个猪群和29707户居民。家庭分类如下：（i）有养猪工人的农村家庭，（ii）没有养猪工人的农村家庭，和（iii）没有养猪工人的城市家庭。基于围绕病毒在界面传播的六种情景和猪工作者的四种疫苗接种覆盖率水平（0-60%）的组合，对四十八种情景进行了研究，所有这些情景都是在病毒的猪源或人源两种设置下进行的。结果进行了评估的随机“消亡”的分数，规模和时间达到高峰流行日，整体规模和持续时间的爆发。模拟结果表明，最大限度地减少界面处的流感传播性和对养猪工人进行有针对性的疫苗接种具有显著的有益效果。我们的研究结果表明，NAADSM可以作为一个框架来模拟动物和人类之间的传染性人畜共患病的疾病的传播和控制，在某些简化的假设。需要对模型进行进一步评估。除了这些具体的发现，这项研究还可以作为一个基准，为未来的单一健康流感建模研究提供有用的输入。还查明了一些相关的信息差距。鼓励加强监测和收集高质量的信息，以便更准确地确定这些模型的参数。
The circulation of zoonotic influenza A viruses including pH1N1 2009 and H5N1 continue to present a constant threat to animal and human populations. Recently, an H3N2 variant spread from pigs to humans and between humans in limited numbers. Accordingly, this research investigated a range of scenarios of the transmission dynamics of pH1N1 2009 virus at the swine-human interface while accounting for different percentages of swine workers initially immune. Furthermore, the feasibility of using NAADSM (North American Animal Disease Spread Model) applied as a one-health simulation model was assessed. The study population included 488 swine herds and 29, 707 households of people within a county in Ontario, Canada. Households were categorized as follows: (i) rural households with swine workers, (ii) rural households without swine workers, and (iii) urban households without swine workers. Forty-eight scenarios were investigated, based on the combination of six scenarios around the transmissibility of the virus at the interface and four vaccination coverage levels of swine workers (0-60%), all under two settings of either swine or human origin of the virus. Outcomes were assessed in terms of stochastic 'die-out' fraction, size and time to peak epidemic day, overall size and duration of the outbreaks. The modelled outcomes indicated that minimizing influenza transmissibility at the interface and targeted vaccination of swine workers had significant beneficial effects. Our results indicate that NAADSM can be used as a framework to model the spread and control of contagious zoonotic diseases among animal and human populations, under certain simplifying assumptions. Further evaluation of the model is required. In addition to these specific findings, this study serves as a benchmark that can provide useful input to a future one-health influenza modelling studies. Some pertinent information gaps were also identified. Enhanced surveillance and the collection of high-quality information for more accurate parameterization of such models are encouraged.