Analysis of Runoff Trends and Drivers in the Haihe River Basin, China
Analysis of Runoff Trends and Drivers in the Haihe River Basin, China
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph17051577
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发表时间：
2020-02
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Huashan Xu;Yufen Ren;Hua Zheng;Z. Ouyang;B. Jiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Huashan Xu;Yufen Ren;Hua Zheng;Z. Ouyang;B. Jiang
过去几十年来，海河流域径流受到气候变化和人类活动的强烈影响，分析径流变化趋势及其变化驱动因素对于指导水资源管理具有重要意义。采用Mann-Kendall方法和Pettit检验来分析水文和气候趋势。使用了来自6个子流域的数据，包括6个代表性水文站的径流以及49个气象站的降水和气温。我们利用多元回归分析和政策审查来探讨气候变化和人类活动对六个子流域径流变化的影响。结果显示，6个水文站年径流均呈现显着下降趋势（p＜0.05），除漳河地区外，未出现显着突变点（p＜0.05）。与降水趋势相比，各站年平均气温均呈现显着上升趋势，1980年代末至1990年代初可能是四个子流域最可能出现突变的时期。趋势分析和突变点分析表明，平均气温是导致径流时间序列下降的主要气候因素，而降水量的不显着下降趋势可能会加速径流数据的下降趋势。通过土地利用改革和三北防护林建设等政策措施，中国于1978年开始实行家庭联产承包责任制，并启动了第一阶段三北防护林建设。土地利用改革政策极大地激发了农民经营土地的积极性，短时间内使海河流域的土地利用格局和用水量发生了显着变化。此外，降水量减少，气温升高，径流在20世纪70年代末至80年代初出现突变。 20世纪90年代中后期径流的突变与三北防护林工程的建设时间高度契合。三北防护林工程建设经过近20年，森林面积增加，森林质量改善，下垫面植被覆盖度发生明显变化，三北防护林工程建设是20世纪90年代中后期径流变化的重要原因。此外，降水量和气温的变化放大了径流变化的影响。
During the past decades, runoff has been highly influenced by climate change and human activities in Haihe River basin, and it is important to analyze the runoff trends and the drivers of its change to guide water resources management. The Mann–Kendall method and Pettitt test were conducted to analyze the hydrological and climate trends. Data from six sub-basins were used, including runoff at six representative hydrological stations and precipitation and air temperature at 49 meteorological stations. We used multiple-regression analysis and policy review to explore the influence of climate change and human activities on the runoff change at six sub-basins. According to the results, annual runoff showed a significant downward trend at six hydrological stations (p 0.05), and there were no significant abrupt change points except the Zhang River area (p < 0.05). Compared with the precipitation trend, the annual mean air temperature exhibited a significant increasing trend at all stations, and the period from the late 1980s to the early 1990s might be the most probable abrupt change points at all four sub-basins. The trend analysis and the abrupt change point analysis suggest that mean air temperature is the main climate factor that will lead to the decline in the runoff time-series, while the insignificant downward trend of the precipitation might accelerate the downward trend of the runoff data. Through elevant policy measures, including land-use reform and the construction of the Three-North (north, northeast, and northwest China) Shelter Forest, China started to implement a family-contract responsibility system and initiated the first stage of construction of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program in 1978. The land-use reform policies greatly stimulated the peasants’ initiative for land management and significantly changed the land use pattern and water use quantity in the Haihe River basin in a short time. Besides, the precipitation decreased and the air temperature rose, so an abrupt change in runoff occurred from the late 1970s to the early 1980s. The abrupt change in the runoff in the middle and late 1990s highly tallied with the construction time of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program. After near 20 years of construction of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program, the forest area increased, the forest quality had been improved, and the vegetation coverage on the underlying surface had been changed significantly, so the construction of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program was an important cause of runoff change in the middle and late 1990s. Also, change in precipitation and air temperature enlarged the effect of change in the runoff.