The relationship between daily European precipitation and measures of atmospheric water vapour transport
The relationship between daily European precipitation and measures of atmospheric water vapour transport
复制标题
欧洲日降水量与大气水汽输送量之间的关系
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Villarini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Lavers;G. Villarini
在这项研究中，我们研究了欧洲日降水总量与冬季和夏季大气水汽输送的不同指标之间的关系。使用整个欧洲基于格网尺度的降水估计和现代研究与应用回顾分析(MERRA)再分析作为水汽输送的来源，我们检查了什么预报变量组合(与不同水平的风、湿度和总柱水有关)解释了最大的降水变异性。结果表明，冬季比夏季有更强的相关性，解释日降水量变化的最佳线性模式包含纬向和经向水汽输送分量作为预报因子[例如，欧洲阿尔卑斯山(挪威西部)冬季降水的R2值约为0.5(0.45)]。还讨论了与纬向和经向水汽通量关系最密切的降水区。我们还表明，只需要三个场，即积分水汽和850百帕纬向风和经向风的模式，就能很好地解释欧洲的降水变化。考虑到在计算大气柱综合水蒸气输送(特别是气候变化预测)时的计算和初始存储要求，有可能利用这三个领域评估未来欧洲上空的水蒸气通量，进而对未来的降雨和洪水事件作出推断。
In this study we investigate the relationship between daily European precipitation totals and different measures of atmospheric water vapour transport during both the winter and summer seasons. Using gridded gauge‐based precipitation estimates across Europe and the Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis as the source of the water vapour transport, we examine what combination of predictor variables (related to wind and humidity at different levels and total column water) explains the most precipitation variability. Results show that stronger relationships occur in the winter than in the summer, and that the best linear models for explaining the daily rainfall variability contain the zonal and meridional water vapour transport components as predictors [e.g. winter precipitation in the European Alps (western Norway) has R2 values of about 0.5 (0.45)]. Precipitation regions most related to zonal and meridional moisture fluxes are also discussed. We also show that models requiring just three fields, namely the integrated water vapour, and the 850‐hPa zonal and meridional winds, are able to explain the precipitation variability in Europe well. Given the computational and initial storage requirements in calculating water vapour transport integrated over the atmospheric column (in particular for climate change projections), it would be possible to use these three fields in assessments of future water vapour fluxes over Europe, in turn allowing inferences to be made on future rainfall and flood events.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Lavers, David A.;Allan, Richard P.;Wade, Andrew J.
通讯作者：
Wade, Andrew J.