US Commuting delays from tidal flooding worsen with sea level rise
US Commuting delays from tidal flooding worsen with sea level rise
复制标题
随着海平面上升，美国潮汐洪水导致的通勤延误进一步恶化
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Sheriff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Hauer;V. Mueller;G. Sheriff
虽然预计海平面上升将在21世纪末造成严重的社会影响，但很少有研究量化沿海社区已经面临的影响，关于当代适应行为的经验证据仍然有限。在这里，我们结合联合收割机完整的道路网络，历史和预计的洪水暴露，以及家庭/工作地点的5亿人年的美国沿海通勤估计的历史和预计的延误，由于SLR相关的潮汐洪水。我们发现，潮汐洪水目前使沿海通勤者平均延迟22分钟（+/- 4.4），在目前海平面上升的情况下，到2060年将增加到183（+/- 33）至643（+/- 108）分钟。此外，从2000年到2015年，居住和工作地点的适应性变化减少了美国40%县沿海居民的延误。在缺乏政策的情况下，这些通勤延误可能导致资本和居民逃离目前繁荣的沿海经济区。
Although sea level rise is predicted to cause severe societal impacts at the end of the 21st century, few studies quantify the impacts coastal communities already face and empirical evidence regarding contemporary adaptive behaviors to these contemporary impacts remains limited. Here we combine complete road networks, historical and projected flood exposure, and the home/work locations of 500 million person-years for US coastal commuters to estimate the historic and projected delays due to SLR-related tidal flooding. We find that tidal flooding currently delays coastal commuters by an average of 22 minutes (+/- 4.4), increasing to 183 (+/- 33) to 643 (+/- 108) minutes by 2060 under current sea level rise scenarios. Furthermore, adaptive changes in residential and work locations from 2000-2015 reduced delays for coastal residents in 40% of U.S. counties. In the absence of policy, these commuting delays could lead to capital and residential flight from currently thriving coastal economic zones.