Evaluation of various distributions for flood frequency analysis
Evaluation of various distributions for flood frequency analysis
复制标题
评估洪水频率分析的各种分布
DOI：
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发表时间：
1993
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Horlacher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Haktanir;H. Horlacher
摘要一个由9种不同的概率分布组成的统计模型特别适用于洪水频率分析，该模型应用于德国莱茵河流域11条未调节河流和苏格兰两条河流的年洪峰序列，至少有30个观测值。其中大部分分布的参数是用极大似然法和概率加权矩法估计的。首先通过对观察到的系列进行经典拟合优度检验来比较分布。其次，通过对合成长序列的详细分析，评价了所有模型对极端右尾事件的预测优度。一般极值分布和三参数对数正态分布对百年一遇以上罕见洪水的预测效果优于其它分布。一般极值类型2和log-Pearson类型3（当偏度为正时）通常会产生稍微保守的峰。Wakeby Distribution A.
Abstract A statistical model comprising nine different probability distributions used especially for flood frequency analysis was applied to annual flood peak series with at least 30 observations for 11 unregulated streams in the Rhine Basin in Germany and two streams in Scotland. The parameters of most of those distributions were estimated by the methods of maximum likelihood and probability-weighted moments. The distributions were first compared by classical goodness-of-fit tests on the observed series. Next, the goodness of predictions of the extreme right-tail events by all the models were evaluated through detailed analyses of long synthetically generated series. The general extreme value and 3-parameter lognormal distributions were found to predict the rare floods of return periods of 100 years or more better than the other distributions used. The general extreme value type 2 and log-Pearson type 3 (when skewness is positive) would usually yield slightly conservative peaks. The Wakeby distribution a...