Predicting success in the worldwide start-up network
Predicting success in the worldwide start-up network
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-019-57209-w
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发表时间：
2020-01-15
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Latora, Vito
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bonaventura, Moreno;Ciotti, Valerio;Latora, Vito
通过利用大规模的在线数据，我们能够构建和分析初创企业之间随时间变化的全球专业关系网络。该网络的节点代表公司，而链接则模拟了员工的流动和相关的公司间技术转让。我们使用网络中心性措施来评估，在早期阶段，长期积极的经济表现的可能性的初创企业。我们发现创业网络具有预测能力，通过使用网络中心性，我们可以提供有价值的建议，有时会使风险投资基金的当前艺术表现翻倍。我们基于网络的方法支持这样一种理论，即初创企业在其生态系统中的地位与其未来的成功有关，同时，它为风险投资公司的劳动密集型筛选过程提供了有效的补充。研究结果还有助于决策者和企业家对创新生态系统的长期潜力进行更客观的评估，并据此制定有针对性的干预措施。
By drawing on large-scale online data we are able to construct and analyze the time-varying worldwide network of professional relationships among start-ups. The nodes of this network represent companies, while the links model the flow of employees and the associated transfer of know-how across companies. We use network centrality measures to assess, at an early stage, the likelihood of the long-term positive economic performance of a start-up. We find that the start-up network has predictive power and that by using network centrality we can provide valuable recommendations, sometimes doubling the current state of the art performance of venture capital funds. Our network-based approach supports the theory that the position of a start-up within its ecosystem is relevant for its future success, while at the same time it offers an effective complement to the labour-intensive screening processes of venture capital firms. Our results can also enable policy-makers and entrepreneurs to conduct a more objective assessment of the long-term potentials of innovation ecosystems, and to target their interventions accordingly.