Do people make decisions under risk based on ignorance? An empirical test of the priority heuristic against cumulative prospect theory
Do people make decisions under risk based on ignorance? An empirical test of the priority heuristic against cumulative prospect theory
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DOI：
10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.02.003
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发表时间：
2008-09-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Betsch, Tilmann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gloeckner, Andreas;Betsch, Tilmann
Brandstatter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig [Brandstatter， E., Gigerenzer， G., and Hertwig， R.]（2006）。优先级启发式：在没有权衡的情况下做出选择。心理评论，113(2)，409-432]提出优先级启发式（PH）作为一种快速和节俭的风险决策启发式。根据PH，个体不会像预期效用模型（如累积前景理论（CPT））所建议的那样，在收益和概率之间进行权衡，而是以非补偿性的方式使用信息并忽略信息。本文通过分析诊断决策任务中的个体选择模式、决策时间和信息搜索参数，对PH值进行了实证检验。所有三个因变量的结果都与PH的预测相冲突，可以用CPT更好地解释。PH在预测与CPT预测一致的决策任务中的预测准确性很高，但在与CPT预测不一致的决策任务中，PH的预测准确性很低。研究结果表明，早期支持PH的结果可能是由于选择的决策任务与CPT相比对PH没有诊断性。(C) 2008爱思唯尔公司版权所有。
Brandstatter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig [Brandstatter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The Priority Heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs. Psychological Review, 113(2), 409-432] put forward the priority heuristic (PH) as a fast and frugal heuristic for decisions under risk. According to the PH, individuals do not make trade-offs between gains and probabilities, as proposed by expected utility models such as cumulative prospect theory (CPT), but use information in a non-compensatory manner and ignore information. We conducted three studies to test the PH empirically by analyzing individual choice patterns, decision times and information search parameters in diagnostic decision tasks. Results on all three dependent variables conflict with the predictions of the PH and can be better explained by the CPT. The predictive accuracy of the PH was high for decision tasks in which the predictions align with the predictions of the CPT but very low for decision tasks in which this was not the case. The findings indicate that earlier results supporting the PH might have been caused by the selection of decision tasks that were not diagnostic for the PH as compared to CPT. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.