The Linguistic Modeling of Interval-valued Time Series: A Perspective of Granular Computing

The Linguistic Modeling of Interval-valued Time Series: A Perspective of Granular Computing
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区间值时间序列的语言建模:粒计算的视角

DOI:
10.1016/j.ins.2018.11.024
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发表时间:
2019-04
影响因子:
8.1
通讯作者:
Xiaodong Liu
Xiaodong Liu
中科院分区:
计算机科学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Wei Lu;Wei Zhou;Dan Shan;Liyong Zhang;Jianhua Yang;Xiaodong Liu

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区间值时间序列(ITS)建模是时间序列分析领域中一个持续存在的及时问题。许多研究人员提出了不同的数值模型,显示这些模型在数值层面上具有更好的性能。然而,如何建立一个既具有高精度又具有可解释性的ITS语言模型的问题却很少被研究。在本研究中,遵循粒计算的设计方法提出了ITS的语言建模方法。该方法的关键在于形成由描述ITS幅度特性的一系列基本概念组成的粒度码本、ITS的粒度表达机制以及基于多层感知器(MLP)的粒度映射的实现。此外,还给出了所形成的语言模型的神经网络拓扑,以展示粒计算(GrC)分层处理信息的特点。对几个公开的金融 ITS 进行了实验研究,显示出不同的动态特征,这为所提出的方法的有效性提供了有用的见解,并揭示了其参数对已建立的语言模型性能的影响。
Modeling interval-valued time series (ITS) is an ongoing timely issue in the domain of time series analysis. Many researchers proposed diverse numeric models showing better performance of these models at the numeric level. However, a question how to establish a linguistic model of ITS exhibiting both high accuracy and interpretability is rarely studied. In this study, a linguistic modeling approach of ITS is presented by following the design methodology of granular computing. The crux of the proposed approach involves the formation of granular codebook consisting of a series of fundamental concepts describing amplitude characteristics of ITS, the granular expression mechanism of ITS and the realization of granular mapping based on multilayer perceptrons (MLPs). Further, the topology of neural network of the formed linguistic model is also presented to show the characteristics of layered processing information of granular computing (GrC). Experimental studies are reported for several publicly available financial ITS showing different dynamic characteristics, which offer a useful insight into the effectiveness of the proposed approach as well as reveal the impact of their parameter on the performance of the established linguistic model.
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