Modelling infestation risk of Norway spruce by Ips typographus (L.) in the Lower Saxon Harz Mountains (Germany)
Modelling infestation risk of Norway spruce by Ips typographus (L.) in the Lower Saxon Harz Mountains (Germany)
复制标题
通过 Ipstypographus (L.) 对下撒克逊哈尔茨山脉（德国）的挪威云杉侵染风险进行建模
DOI：
10.1016/j.foreco.2011.11.011
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Matthias Schmidt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Overbeck;Matthias Schmidt
挪威云杉（Picea abies（L.）喀斯特。）在经济上是欧洲最重要的树种，但特别容易遭受虫害灾害。在欧洲威胁挪威云杉的生物风险中，云杉树皮甲虫Ips typographus（L.）是最重要的害虫根据预测的气候变化情景，气温升高和生长季节延长可能会导致这种害虫更加频繁和严重的爆发，因为每年的世代数会增加。与此同时，干旱期可能变得更加频繁，持续时间更长，导致挪威云杉的生理衰弱。因此，有必要制定可用于长期造林规划的概念，以尽量减少树皮甲虫侵扰的风险，直到树木达到成熟。为了适应森林管理，有必要在造林规划单位一级查明和量化风险。因此，我们开发了一个混合二元线性回归模型，它描述了不同的立场和网站变量的影响，树皮甲虫施加在云杉林在哈尔茨山的侵扰风险。相关数据是根据哈茨山脉西部的下萨克森州森林局十年来进行的详细森林登记记录得出的，涵盖了4352个林分的12,085份个人登记。在模型中，云杉林分年龄、云杉比例、立地有效水容量、总热量和Topex距离指数等参数对入侵风险有显著影响。据推测，各种但未知的造林措施和虫害控制策略在管理的森林的影响可以量化的随机效应的森林分区一级。当应用我们的模型时，可以将预期的风险水平分配给单个云杉林分。因此，我们可以增加一个生物风险的组成部分，以网站为导向的造林。因此，可以提供云杉林分的树皮甲虫侵扰风险的映射排名。此外，具体的造林管理策略，如缩短轮伐期或阔叶树种的混合物可以从模型的预测。
Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) is economically the most important European tree species but is particularly prone to insect infestation calamities. Among the biotic risks threatening Norway spruce in Europe the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) is the most significant pest. On the basis of projected climate-change scenarios higher temperatures and longer growing seasons will probably lead to even more frequent and serious outbreaks of this pest as a result of more generations per year. At the same time periods of drought may become more frequent and be of longer duration resulting in a physiological weakening of Norway spruce. Hence, it is necessary to develop concepts that can be used in long term silvicultural planning to minimize the risk of bark beetle infestations until trees reach maturity. For an adaptation of forest management it is necessary to identify and quantify risks at the level of silvicultural planning units. Therefore, we developed, a mixed binary linear regression model, which describes the effects of different stand and site variables on the infestation risk that bark beetles exert on spruce stands in the Harz Mountains. The relevant data are based on a decade of detailed forest booking records carried out by the Lower Saxony State Forest in the western Harz Mountains and cover 12,085 individual registrations on 4352 stands. In the model, the stand parameters age and proportion of spruce, and site parameters available water capacity, thermal sum and the Topex-to-Distance Index have significant effects on the infestation risk. It is presumed that the impact of various but unknown silvicultural measures and pest control tactics in managed forests can be quantified by random effects on the forest sub-district level. When applying our model it is possible to assign expected risk levels to single spruce stands. Thereby, we can add a biotic risk component to site-oriented silviculture. Thus, a mapped ranking of spruce stands pertaining to bark beetle infestation risk can be provided. In addition, specific silvicultural management strategies such as shortening of rotation periods or an admixture of broadleaved tree species can be derived from the model’s predictions.