How mobility habits influenced the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic: Results from the Italian case study
How mobility habits influenced the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic: Results from the Italian case study
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140489
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发表时间：
2020-11-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Martino, Maria
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Carteni, Armando;Francesco, Luigi Di;Martino, Maria
从2019年12月开始，世界面临着由SARS-CoV-2病原体引起的新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）引起的前所未有的健康危机。在这一主题内，该论文的目的是通过多元线性回归模型量化流动习惯对意大利冠状病毒传播的影响。估计结果显示，流动习惯是解释COVID-19感染人数的变量之一，与每日检测次数和一些环境变量（即PM污染和温度）一起。尽管如此，第一次暴发的邻近变量也很重要，这意味着靠近暴发的地区有更高的传染风险，特别是在感染的初始阶段（时间衰减现象）。此外，每日新病例数与三周前的旅行有关。21天的阈值可被视为一种阳性检测时间，这意味着通常设定为14天的流动性限制检疫（仅根据基于孵化的流行病学考虑因素定义）被低估（传染和检测之间可能存在延迟）作为遏制政策，可能并不总是有助于有效减缓病毒在全球范围内的传播。这一结果是原创性的，如果在其他研究中得到证实，将为仍处于卫生紧急状态的国家更有效地遏制COVID-19以及该病毒未来可能的回归奠定基础。(C)2020爱思唯尔B. V.保留所有权利。
Starting from December 2019 the world has faced an unprecedented health crisis caused by the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) due to the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen. Within this topic, the aim of the paper was to quantify the effect of mobility habits in the spread of the Coronavirus in Italy through a multiple linear regression model. Estimation results showed that mobility habits represent one of the variables that explains the number of COVID-19 infections jointly with the number of tests/day and some environmental variables (i.e. PM pollution and temperature). Nevertheless, a proximity variable to the first outbreak was also significant, meaning that the areas close to the outbreak had a higher risk of contagion, especially in the initial stage of infection (time-decay phenomena). Furthermore, the number of daily new cases was related to the trips performed three weeks before. This threshold of 21 days could be considered as a sort of positivity detection time, meaning that the mobility restrictions quarantine commonly set at 14 days, defined only according to incubation-based epidemiological considerations, is underestimated (possible delays between contagion and detection) as a containment policy and may not always contribute to effectively slowing down the spread of virus worldwide. This result is original and, if confirmed in other studies, will lay the groundwork for more effective containment of COVID-19 in countries that are still in the health emergency, as well as for possible future returns of the virus. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.