Nomogram predicting bullying victimization in adolescents
Nomogram predicting bullying victimization in adolescents
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jad.2022.02.037
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发表时间：
2022-02-19
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Mei, Songli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lv, Jianping;Ren, Hui;Mei, Songli
目的：本研究的目的是构建一个横断面研究，预测青少年欺负受害的风险。方法：采用分层随机整群抽样方法，抽取17,365名青少年作为研究对象。经典的回归方法（逻辑回归和Lasso回归）和机器学习模型相结合，以确定最显着的预测欺负受害。基于多变量logistic回归模型构建诺模图。通过受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）、校正曲线和高质量的外部验证，评价诺模图的区分、校正和推广。结果如下：多因素回归分析包括年级、性别、同伴暴力、家庭暴力、体重指数、家庭结构、抑郁症状和网络成瘾，被认为是最佳组合。基于非过拟合多变量模型建立的诺模图通过内部验证（曲线下面积：0.749）和外部验证（曲线下面积：0.755）进行验证，显示出良好的区分度、校准度和泛化能力。结论：本研究构建的综合列线图是评估青少年欺负受害风险的一种有效和方便的工具。这有助于卫生保健专业人员评估青少年受欺负的风险，并确定高风险群体，采取更有效的预防措施。
Objective: The purpose of this study was to construct a cross-sectional study to predict the risk of bullying victimization among adolescents. Methods: The study recruited 17,365 Chinese adolescents using stratified random cluster sampling method. The classical regression methods (logistic regression and Lasso regression) and machine learning model were combined to identify the most significant predictors of bullying victimization. Nomogram was built based on multivariable logistic regression model. The discrimination, calibration and generalization of nomogram were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), the calibration curve and a high-quality external validation. Results: Grade, gender, peer violence, family violence, body mass index, family structure, depressive symptoms and Internet addiction, recognized as the best combination, were included in the multivariable regression. The nomogram established based on the non-overfitting multi variable model was verified by internal validation (Area Under Curve: 0.749) and external validation (Area Under Curve: 0.755), showing decent prediction of discrimination, calibration and generalization. Conclusion: Comprehensive nomogram constructed in this study was a useful and convenient tool to evaluate the risk of bullying victimization of adolescents. It is helpful for health-care professionals to assess the risk of bullying victimization among adolescents, and to identify high-risk groups and take more effective preventive measures.