Mandated Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination predicts flattened curves for the spread of COVID-19
Mandated Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination predicts flattened curves for the spread of COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.abc1463
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Kitayama, Shinobu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berg, Martha K.;Yu, Qinggang;Kitayama, Shinobu
卡介苗（BCG）疫苗接种可以降低一系列传染病的风险，如果是这样，它可以预防2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）。在这里，我们比较了至少在2000年之前强制接种卡介苗的国家和没有强制接种的国家。为了最大限度地减少报告偏差的系统性影响，我们分析了各国疫情爆发前30天内确诊病例（134个国家）和死亡病例（135个国家）的逐日增加率。30天的窗口期调整为在国家大流行开始时开始。线性混合模型显示，在控制了中位年龄、人均国内生产总值、人口密度、人口规模、净移民率和各种文化因素（例如，个人主义）。我们的分析表明，强制接种BCG疫苗可以有效对抗COVID-19。
Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination may reduce the risk of a range of infectious diseases, and if so, it could protect against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here, we compared countries that mandated BCG vaccination until at least 2000 with countries that did not. To minimize any systematic effects of reporting biases, we analyzed the rate of the day-by-day increase in both confirmed cases (134 countries) and deaths (135 countries) in the first 30-day period of country-wise outbreaks. The 30-day window was adjusted to begin at the country-wise onset of the pandemic. Linear mixed models revealed a significant effect of mandated BCG policies on the growth rate of both cases and deaths after controlling for median age, gross domestic product per capita, population density, population size, net migration rate, and various cultural dimensions (e.g., individualism). Our analysis suggests that mandated BCG vaccination can be effective in the fight against COVID-19.