The shadow of death model revisited with an application to French firms
The shadow of death model revisited with an application to French firms
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重新审视死亡阴影模型并应用于法国公司
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Claude Mathieu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Blanchard;J. Huiban;Claude Mathieu
本文提供了一个死亡阴影的经验模型，其中企业的退出概率取决于企业的生产绩效和企业的沉没成本水平，这被视为退出的障碍。死亡效应的阴影是通过假设退出倾向与效率和沉没成本的同期值和滞后值之间的关系来处理的。为了估计未观察到的生产效率，我们使用Ackerberg et al.（2006）估计量，通过添加选择偏差校正进行扩展。我们使用了一个不平衡的样本约10万法国公司在1997年至2002年期间。我们的研究结果表明，退出的概率是负面影响不可观察的个人效率和沉没成本的水平。死亡效应的阴影主要适用于制造业，在退出前的几年里，生产效率和沉没成本都在下降。在服务部门，退出过程似乎更突然。
This article provides an empirical model of the shadow of death in which the exit probability of a firm depends on the firm’s productive performance and the firm’s level of sunk costs, which are viewed as barriers to exit. The shadow of death effect is treated by assuming a relationship between the propensity to exit and both the contemporaneous and lagged values of efficiency and sunk costs. To estimate the unobserved productive efficiency, we use the Ackerberg et al. (2006) estimator extended by the addition of a correction for selection bias. We use an unbalanced sample of approximately 100 000 French firms over the period 1997 to 2002. Our results indicate that the probability of exit is negatively affected by unobserved individual efficiency and the level of sunk costs. The shadow of death effect applies mainly in manufacturing, where both productive efficiency and sunk costs decrease during several years before exit. In service sectors, the exit process seems to occur more suddenly.