Artificial intelligence and the future of work – lessons from the sociology of expectations
Artificial intelligence and the future of work – lessons from the sociology of expectations
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人工智能和工作的未来——期望社会学的教训
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
L. Vicsek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Vicsek
目的未来的工作会是什么样子？本文的目的是展示期望社会学（SE）——处理愿景的力量——如何通过批判性地评估与未来就业和人工智能（AI）辩论相关的主导专家立场，在思考这个问题方面做出重要贡献。设计/方法/方法在提供有关SE的文献综述后，应用基于后者的方法来解释未来工作辩论中占主导地位的理想型专家立场，以说明这一观点的价值。未来主导剧本的特点是关注人工智能技术的影响，赋予技术和未来以代理权，涉及对两极分化框架的预期炒作，以及模糊的不确定性。有人认为，这些期望可能会产生重大后果。它们使一些对话成为可能，同时阻碍了其他对话，从而有助于关闭通向未来的替代途径。为了促进理解，需要更复杂的理论，超越这些立场，并考虑技术和社会的不确定性和相互塑造——包括期望所发挥的作用。研究局限性/影响该研究断言，主导立场包含有问题的假设。它提出了一些建议，以帮助从理论上超越这些当前的辩论框架。它还认为，情景构建和回溯是两种工具，可以帮助推进对未来工作的思考——特别是如果这以某种方式进行，以便强有力地建立在SE的基础上。 实际意义 本文提出的论点增强了与未来工作辩论相关的意义建构，并有助于政策制定。 原创性/价值 对于与人工智能相关的愿景的作用及其后果缺乏充分的探索。本文试图通过应用 SE 方法并强调愿景的执行力来解决这一差距。
PurposeWhat is the future of work going to look like? The aim of this paper is to show how the sociology of expectations (SE) – which deals with the power of visions – can make important contributions in terms of thinking about this issue by critically evaluating the dominant expert positions related to the future-of-employment- and artificial intelligence (AI) debate.Design/methodology/approachAfter providing a literature review regarding SE, an approach based on the latter is applied to interpret the dominant ideal-type expert positions in the future of work debate to illustrate the value of this perspective.FindingsDominant future scripts can be characterized by a focus on the effects of AI technology that give agency to technology and to the future, involve the hype of expectations with polarized frames, and obscure uncertainty. It is argued that these expectations can have significant consequences. They contribute to the closing off of alternative pathways to the future by making some conversations possible, while hindering others. In order to advance understanding, more sophisticated theorizing is needed which goes beyond these positions and which takes uncertainty and the mutual shaping of technology and society into account – including the role expectations play.Research limitations/implicationsThe study asserts that the dominant positions contain problematic assumptions. It makes suggestions for helping move beyond these current framings of the debate theoretically. It also argues that scenario building and backcasting are two tools that could help move forward thinking about the future of work – especially if this is done in a way so as to build strongly on SE.Practical implicationsThe arguments presented herein enhance sense-making in relation to the future-of-work debate, and can contribute to policy development.Originality/valueThere is a lack of adequate exploration of the role of visions related to AI and their consequences. This paper attempts to address this gap by applying an SE approach and emphasizing the performative force of visions.