Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading
Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y
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发表时间：
2019-09-02
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Smith, David L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cooper, Laura;Kang, Su Yun;Smith, David L.
异质性传播是传染病动态和控制的挑战。已经提出了80-20“帕累托”规则来描述这种异质性，其中80%的传播由20%的个体（本文称为超级传播者）占。然而，尚不清楚超级传播是否可归因于某些个人，或者它是否是流行病的不可预测和不可避免的特征。在这里，我们调查异质性疟疾传播在乌干达的三个地点，发现超级传播与整体疟疾传播强度呈负相关。在最低传播强度下，人类的蚊虫叮咬率为90-10，在最高强度下下降到低于70-30。对于超级传播者，叮咬范围从70-30下降到60-40。差异，约占总方差的一半，是由于环境的随机性。因此，超级传播在一定程度上是由于超级传播者，但预计针对超级传播者的收益不大。
Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 "Pareto" rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.