Linkages between soybean and neotropical deforestation: Coupling and transient decoupling dynamics in a multi-decadal analysis
Linkages between soybean and neotropical deforestation: Coupling and transient decoupling dynamics in a multi-decadal analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.09.007
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发表时间：
2013-12-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Gutierrez Angonese, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gasparri, N. I.;Grau, H. R.;Gutierrez Angonese, J.
在过去的几十年里，在全球肉类需求不断增长的推动下，大豆的扩张伴随着新热带地区的森林砍伐。最近巴西大豆生产和森林砍伐之间的脱钩被视为有效的森林砍伐监管的证据。在这里，我们评估了1972年至2011年阿根廷北部干旱查科地区大豆经济、畜牧业生产和森林砍伐之间的关系。我们使用面板分析来评估不同时期大豆种植面积与砍伐面积的关系，并使用高分辨率时间序列分析一个砍伐热点，探索大豆经济、养牛业与砍伐森林之间的联系。在阿根廷北部，从1972年到2011年，270万公顷的森林被砍伐，其中56%发生在2002年后。专家小组的分析结果表明，大豆种植和毁林之间有很强的联系，但不同时期之间的差异是由大豆生产和畜牧业生产之间的联系决定的。在1972-1997年和2002-2011年期间，砍伐森林与大豆扩张密切相关；但在1997-2002年间基本上脱钩，当时产量的强劲增长伴随着较低的森林砍伐。高分辨率分析还表明，1997年后和1997年前的关联程度截然不同。在巴西和阿根廷的大豆砍伐脱钩时期，大豆生产的经济激励措施同样薄弱，技术创新迅速，之前的森林砍伐高峰期。在阿根廷的案例中，当经济激励在经历了5年的脱钩后转为正值时，政府的新措施无法监管森林砍伐。我们的研究表明，与国内法律框架相比，宏观经济因素可能是一股更强大的森林砍伐力量。应仔细监测和谨慎解释新热带毁林条例的效力，特别注意大豆扩张的全球经济背景。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
Soybean expansion, driven by growing global meat demand, has accompanied neotropical deforestation in past decades. A recent decoupling between soybean production and deforestation in Brazil is taken as evidence of efficient deforestation regulation. Here, we assessed the relationships between soybean economy, livestock production and deforestation from 1972 to 2011 in Northern Argentina Dry Chaco. We used Panel Analysis to evaluate the relationship between soybean cultivated and deforested area in different periods and we used high resolution time series analysis of a deforestation hotspot, to explore links between soybean economy, cattle ranching and deforestation. In northern Argentina, 2.7 millions ha were deforested from 1972 to 2011, 56% of which occurred after 2002. The results of the Panel analysis indicate a strong link between soybean expansion and deforestation but with variation among periods mediated by the links between soybean and livestock productions. Deforestation was strongly coupled with soybean expansion during the 1972-1997 and 2002-2011 periods; but was largely decoupled between 1997 and 2002, when strong increments in production were accompanied by low deforestation. The high resolution analysis also indicated contrasting levels of association after and before 1997. The soybean deforestation decoupled periods in Brazil and Argentina shared similarly weak economic incentives for soybean production, rapid technological innovation and preceding high deforestation periods. In the Argentine case, when economic incentives turned positive after a 5-years decoupled period, new government measures were unable to regulate deforestation. Our study suggests that macroeconomic factors can be a much stronger deforestation force compared with domestic legal frameworks. Effectiveness of neotropical deforestation regulation should be carefully monitored and interpreted with caution paying special attention to global economic context for soybean expansion. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.