Potential Inundation due to Rising Sea Levels in the San Francisco Bay Region
Potential Inundation due to Rising Sea Levels in the San Francisco Bay Region
复制标题
旧金山湾地区海平面上升可能引发洪水
DOI：
10.15447/sfews.2010v8iss1art1
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
N. Knowles
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Knowles
海平面上升速度加快是预计的全球气候变化的主要影响之一。为了评估与海平面持续加速上升相关的潜在淹没，从各种来源收集了现有的最高分辨率高程数据，并进行镶嵌，以覆盖旧金山弗朗西斯科湾地区的陆地表面。接下来，为了量化整个海湾的极端水位，弗朗西斯科河口的水动力学模型由普雷西迪奥每小时水位的预测驱动。这一预测是基于气候模式输出、经验模式和观测结果的组合，并纳入了天文、风暴潮、厄尔尼诺和长期海平面上升的影响。根据由此产生的数据，绘制了与海平面上升的具体幅度和重现间隔相对应的易受淹没地区地图，包括潮汐基准面。这些地图描绘了可能会越来越令人担忧的洪水泛滥地区。在北湾，湿地和一些已开发的填充区处于危险之中。在中部和南部海湾，一个关键特征是发达地区向陆地的边缘，这些地区将成为新的易受洪水淹没的地区。几乎所有邻近南湾的城市都在某种程度上面临这种风险。对于整个海湾来说，早在本世纪中叶，在这种情景下，一年的峰值事件几乎等于2000年的百年峰值事件。脆弱地区的地图，并讨论了一些影响。结果可在http://cascade.wr.usgs.gov/data/Task2b-SFBay上进行交互式查看和下载。
An increase in the rate of sea level rise is one of the primary impacts of projected global climate change. To assess potential inundation associated with a continued acceleration of sea level rise, the highest resolution elevation data available were assembled from various sources and mosaicked to cover the land surfaces of the San Francisco Bay region. Next, to quantify extreme water levels throughout the bay, a hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Estuary was driven by a projection of hourly water levels at the Presidio. This projection was based on a combination of climate model outputs, an empirical model, and observations, and incorporates astronomical, storm surge, El Nino, and long-term sea level rise influences. Based on the resulting data, maps of areas vulnerable to inundation were produced, corresponding to specific amounts of sea level rise and recurrence intervals, including tidal datums. These maps portray areas where inundation will likely be an increasing concern. In the North Bay, wetlands and some developed fill areas are at risk. In Central and South bays, a key feature is the landward periphery of developed areas that would be newly vulnerable to inundation. Nearly all municipalities adjacent to South Bay face this risk to some degree. For the bay as a whole, as early as mid-century under this scenario, the one-year peak event nearly equals the 100-year peak event in 2000. Maps of vulnerable areas are presented and some implications discussed. Results are available for interactive viewing and download at http://cascade.wr.usgs.gov/data/Task2b-SFBay.