What impacts the impact of rare events
What impacts the impact of rare events
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DOI：
10.1007/s11166-008-9035-z
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发表时间：
2008-04-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Hertwig, Ralph
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Erev, Ido;Glozman, Ira;Hertwig, Ralph
Kahneman和Tversky(Economrica 47：263-291,1979)认为“不太可能的事件要么被忽视，要么被过度加权”，但把确定这些相互矛盾的偏向中哪些发生的因素的任务留给了未来的研究。我们提出了四项研究，旨在解决这一问题的背景下，从不完整的描述决策。我们的发现表明，当不太可能发生的事件变得更类似于它们的比较刺激时，当它们被明确呈现时，它们的影响就会增加。使用这些因素，我们逆转了决策研究史上经典赌博的变体、阿莱赌博和圣彼得堡赌博的发现。
Kahneman and Tversky (Econometrica 47:263-291, 1979) argued that "unlikely events are either neglected or overweighted," but left the task of identifying factors that determine which of these contradicting biases occur to future research. We present four studies designed to tackle this issue in the context of decisions from incomplete descriptions. Our findings suggest that the impact of unlikely events increases when they become more similar to their comparison stimuli, and when they are explicitly presented. Using these factors we reversed the findings in variants of classic gambles in the history of decision research, the Allais and the St. Petersburg gambles.