A Discounting Rule for the Social Cost of Carbon
A Discounting Rule for the Social Cost of Carbon
复制标题
碳社会成本的贴现规则
DOI：
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Brian C. Prest
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Newell;W. Pizer;Brian C. Prest
鉴于经济增长的不确定性，我们制定了贴现规则来估算碳的社会成本（SCC）。收入边际效用递减意味着贴现率期限结构与经济增长不确定性之间存在关系。在经典的拉姆齐框架中，这种关系由反映纯粹时间偏好和消费边际效用弹性的参数控制，但对于这些参数的值仍然存在分歧。我们校准这些参数，以匹配未来利率期限结构和经济增长不确定性的经验证据，同时与用于短期效益成本分析的贴现率保持一致。在增长不确定的情况下，这种综合方法至关重要，因为增长也是气候损害的关键决定因素。这导致了一种经验驱动的随机贴现规则，用于估计 SCC，该规则还考虑了气候损害估计和贴现率之间的相关性。
We develop a discounting rule for estimating the social cost of carbon (SCC) given uncertain economic growth. Diminishing marginal utility of income implies a relationship between the discount rate term structure and economic growth uncertainty. In the classic Ramsey framework, this relationship is governed by parameters reflecting pure time preference and the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, yet disagreement remains about the values of these parameters. We calibrate these parameters to match empirical evidence on both the future interest rate term structure and economic growth uncertainty, while also maintaining consistency with discount rates used for shorter-term benefit-cost analysis. Such an integrated approach is crucial amid growth uncertainty, where growth is also a key determinant of climate damages. This results in an empirically driven, stochastic discounting rule to be used in estimating the SCC that also accounts for the correlation between climate damage estimates and discount rates.