Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal
Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-17-423-2017
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发表时间：
2017-03-20
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Dugar, Sumit
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith, Paul J.;Brown, Sarah;Dugar, Sumit
本文件重点介绍了在尼泊尔利用社区预警系统提高洪水复原力的情况。工作的第一部分概述了这些社区系统的演变和现状，强调目前可用于预警的筹备时间有限。本文件第二部分着重于制定一个强有力的洪水预报业务方法，供尼泊尔水文和气象部使用，以缩短预警准备时间。该方法使用基于数据库的物理可解释的时间序列模型和数据同化来生成概率预报，并以简单的可视化工具呈现。该方法旨在在数据有限的情况下发挥作用，重点是可持续性和适当技术。预测方法的成功应用，洪水易发的Karnali河流域在尼泊尔西部的概述，增加前置时间从2-3到7-8小时。报告讨论了将概率预报传达到尼泊尔现有社区预警系统的最后一公里所面临的挑战。本文最后评估了这种方法在流域和国家以外的Karnali和尼泊尔的适用性，并概述了从这一举措中吸取的主要经验教训。
This paper focuses on the use of community-based early warning systems for flood resilience in Nepal. The first part of the work outlines the evolution and current status of these community-based systems, highlighting the limited lead times currently available for early warning. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of a robust operational flood forecasting methodology for use by the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) to enhance early warning lead times. The methodology uses databased physically interpretable time series models and data assimilation to generate probabilistic forecasts, which are presented in a simple visual tool. The approach is designed to work in situations of limited data availability with an emphasis on sustainability and appropriate technology. The successful application of the forecast methodology to the floodprone Karnali River basin in western Nepal is outlined, increasing lead times from 2-3 to 7-8 h. The challenges faced in communicating probabilistic forecasts to the last mile of the existing community-based early warning systems across Nepal is discussed. The paper concludes with an assessment of the applicability of this approach in basins and countries beyond Karnali and Nepal and an overview of key lessons learnt from this initiative.