NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT AND ITS GROWTH PROSPECTS
NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT AND ITS GROWTH PROSPECTS
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全国农产品及其增长前景
DOI：
10.12737/2073-0462-2022-120-133
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Anokhina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Anokhina
面对地缘政治挑战，农业增长与俄罗斯息息相关。我们引入了国民农产品的新概念，以确定农业增长潜力。我们提出了一种评估国民农产品的方法。国家农产品是指生产的农产品的数量，考虑到其可获得性、充分性和满足该国人口需要的数量。利用这一技术，我们对俄罗斯的全国农产品进行了估计，并基于ARIMA（自回归综合移动平均）计量经济模型对主要类型农产品的生产进行了预测。我们认为这些数据并不乐观。俄罗斯将无法实现突破性的农业增长。农业生产指数将适度下降。粮食生产也将有小幅负增长的趋势。牛奶产量每年将增加30万吨。这将使该国无法达到90%的自给自足水平。我们还预测肉类产量将适度下降。因此，俄罗斯农业将无法进入动态发展的轨道，也无法充分应对政治和经济事件。我们认为，有必要改变管理农业增长的方式。为此，我们制定了管理农业经济增长的战略。我们使用模糊认知逻辑技术。我们提出了一套促进国家农产品蓬勃发展的战略举措。我们在对全国农产品参数预测的基础上，确定了该战略。
Agrarian growth is relevant for Russia in the face of geopolitical challenges. We introduce a new concept of national agricultural product to determine the potential for agricultural growth. We propose a methodology for assessing the national agricultural product. The national agricultural product is the volume of agricultural products produced, taking into account its availability, sufficiency and quantity to meet the needs of the country’s population. Using this technique, we estimated the national agricultural product of Russia and developed a forecast for the production of the main types of agricultural products based on ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) econometric models. We consider these data not optimistic. Russia will not be able to achieve breakthrough agricultural growth. The agricultural production index will decline moderately. Grain production will also have a slight negative trend. Milk production will increase by 300 thousand tons annually. This will not allow reaching the level of 90% self-sufficiency in the country. We also predict a moderate decline in meat production. Therefore, Russian agriculture will not be able to enter the trajectory of dynamic development and will not be able to adequately respond to political and economic events. We believe that it is necessary to change approaches to managing agricultural growth. To do this, we have developed a strategy for managing the economic growth of agriculture. We used fuzzy cognitive logic technologies. We have proposed a set of strategic initiatives for the dynamic growth of the national agricultural product. We substantiated the strategy on the basis of forecasts of the parameters of the national agricultural product.