Development and validation of a nomogram predicting the risk of recurrent lumbar disk herniation within 6 months after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy.
Development and validation of a nomogram predicting the risk of recurrent lumbar disk herniation within 6 months after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy.
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预测经皮内窥镜腰椎间盘切除术后 6 个月内腰椎间盘突出症复发风险的列线图的开发和验证
DOI：
10.1186/s13018-021-02425-2
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发表时间：
2021-04-21
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Teng H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jia M;Sheng Y;Chen G;Zhang W;Lin J;Lu S;Li F;Ying J;Teng H
建立并验证一种预测经皮内窥镜腰椎间盘切除术（PELD）后6个月内复发腰椎间盘突出症（rLDH）的列线图。从作者所在医院收集了2018年1月至2019年5月期间患者腰椎间盘突出症（LDH）的信息以及其他26项特征。采用最小绝对收缩选择算子（LASSO）方法筛选最重要的危险因素。此外，诺模图被用来建立一个预测模型，使用从LASSO回归中选择的危险因素。一致性指数（C指数），受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线和校准曲线被用来评估模型的性能。最后，临床实用性的诺模图进行了分析，使用决策曲线和自举用于内部验证。共纳入352例LDH患者。术后6个月内复发32例，无复发320例。根据LASSO回归模型选择了四个潜在因素：病程、Pfirrmann分级、Modic变化和迁移分级。此外，预测列线图的C指数为0.813（95% CI，0.726-0.900），受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）值为0.798，而区间自举验证C指数为0.743。因此，列线图可能是一个很好的预测模型。诺模图中病程、Pfirrmann分级、Modic改变、移位分级等变量均有定量对应的风险评分，可用于预测rLDH 6个月内的总复发率。
To develop and validate a nomogram useful in predicting recurrent lumbar disk herniation (rLDH) within 6 months after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy (PELD). Information on patients’ lumbar disk herniation (LDH) between January 2018 and May 2019 in addition to 26 other features was collected from the authors’ hospital. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used to select the most important risk factors. Moreover, a nomogram was used to build a prediction model using the risk factors selected from LASSO regression. The concordance index (C-index), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve were used to assess the performance of the model. Finally, clinical usefulness of the nomogram was analyzed using the decision curve and bootstrapping used for internal validation. Totally, 352 LDH patients were included into this study. Thirty-two patients had recurrence within 6 months while 320 showed no recurrence. Four potential factors, the course of disease, Pfirrmann grade, Modic change, and migration grade, were selected according to the LASSO regression model. Additionally, the C-index of the prediction nomogram was 0.813 (95% CI, 0.726-0.900) and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.798 while the interval bootstrapping validation C-index was 0.743. Hence, the nomogram might be a good predictive model. Each variable, the course of disease, Pfirrmann grade, Modic change, and migration grade in the nomogram had a quantitatively corresponding risk score, which can be used in predicting the overall recurrence rate of rLDH within 6 months.
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影响因子：
2
作者：
Pencina, MJ;D'Agostino, RB
通讯作者：
D'Agostino, RB
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Swartz, Karin R;Trost, Gregory R
通讯作者：
Trost, Gregory R
影响因子：
11
作者：
Vroomen, PCAJ;de Krom, MCTFM;Knottnerus, JA
通讯作者：
Knottnerus, JA
博来霉素诱导恒河猴体内实验性椎间盘退变
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Wei F;Zhong R;Zhou Z;Wang L;Pan X;Cui S;Zou X;Gao M;Sun H;Chen W;Liu S
通讯作者：
Liu S
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Yin, Jiacheng;Yang, Yong;Wang, Qun
通讯作者：
Wang, Qun