The Effectiveness of Self-Sufficiency Policy: International Price Transmissions in Beef Markets
The Effectiveness of Self-Sufficiency Policy: International Price Transmissions in Beef Markets
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DOI：
10.3390/su12156073
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Tanaka, Tetsuji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo, Jin;Tanaka, Tetsuji
由于2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情、牛海绵状脑病（BSE）和谷物饲料价格高企等意外事件，国际牛肉市场对进口国的区域市场造成了冲击。在2008年全球粮食价格飙升之后，许多国家的政府都致力于提高粮食自给自足，以确保粮食供应。然而，粮食自给政策的效力，特别是肉类产品的效力，还没有得到充分的了解。本文研究了2006年1月至2013年12月期间10个牛肉进口国的全球和区域牛肉价格之间的因果关系，并估计了波动传导的程度。此外，我们使用面板分析实证分析了牛肉自给率如何影响全球和当地牛肉市场之间的相关性。我们的主要发现是：(1)在格鲁吉亚、英国和美国，发现了从全球到本地市场的单向因果关系。与此同时，日本是一个牛肉进口大国，其价格会对全球价格产生因果影响；(2)全球和区域市场之间的互联性相对较弱。区域市场能够比小麦更好地吸收肉类部门的外部冲击，因为肉类生产比谷物生产更灵活，后者严重依赖气候条件。(3)实证结果强有力地表明，高度自给自足有助于将当地市场与全球市场隔离开来。从我们的分析中获得的结果对于希望在紧急情况下将国内牛肉市场与国际牛肉市场隔离开来的国家政府决策者非常有用。
International beef markets have shocked regional markets in importing countries due to unexpected events such as the COVID-19 epidemic, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and high prices for grain feed. After the global food price spikes in 2008, many national governments aimed to improve food self-sufficiency to secure food supply. However, the efficacy of food self-sufficiency policy, particularly that of meat products, is not fully understood. This paper investigates the causal nexus and estimates the degree of volatility transmissions between global and regional beef prices in 10 beef-importing nations for the period January 2006 to December 2013. Furthermore, we empirically analyze how beef self-sufficiency rates affect the correlations between global and local beef markets using a panel analysis. Our primary findings are: (1) Unidirectional causality from global to local markets was found for Georgia, the UK and the United States. Meanwhile, Japan is a large beef importer, and its price causally influences global prices; (2) We found that the interconnectivity between world and regional markets is relatively weak. Regional markets can absorb external shocks in the meat sector better than wheat because meat production is more flexible than grain production, which is heavily dependent on climatic conditions and (3) Empirical results provide strong indications that high self-sufficiency is useful in isolating local markets from global markets. The results obtained from our analysis are extremely useful for policymakers of national governments who desire to insulate domestic from international beef markets in an emergent situation.