Developing an agent-based model to simulate the beef cattle production and transportation in southwest Kansas
Developing an agent-based model to simulate the beef cattle production and transportation in southwest Kansas
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DOI：
10.1016/j.physa.2019.04.092
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发表时间：
2019-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Qihui Yang;D. Gruenbacher;Jessica L. Heier Stamm;Gary L. Brase;S. DeLoach;D. Amrine;C. Scoglio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qihui Yang;D. Gruenbacher;Jessica L. Heier Stamm;Gary L. Brase;S. DeLoach;D. Amrine;C. Scoglio
美国的现代肉牛生产是一个高度专业化的系统，从奶牛场到饲养场，到饲养场，再到包装机。牛的生产系统与运输系统特别相互依赖，因为牛和饲料需要在生产阶段移动。虽然这种相互依赖性使相互依赖的系统能够发挥经济功能，但它也给系统带来脆弱性，扩大了疾病传播和自然灾害的后果。以西南堪萨斯州为研究区域，通过基于Agent的建模方法，将肉牛业和运输业明确地建模为两个独立但又相互关联的行业。由于隐私问题，牛和卡车移动数据很少，我们首先在正常操作条件下生成生产地点之间的牛和卡车移动数据。然后，我们评估系统的鲁棒性，通过构建假设的中断在养牛业和运输业。仿真结果表明，相互依赖的系统是强大的随机故障，但容易受到有针对性的关闭牛的处所或卡车处所。此外，我们观察到，与其他运输中断相比，为包装商服务的卡车中断对牛的生产影响最大。在备灾过程中，决策者和系统设计者需要考虑相互依赖的基础设施造成的脆弱性，并特别注意其关键组成部分之一，肉类包装机。
Modern beef cattle production in the U.S. is a highly specialized system that spans from cow–calf ranches, to stockers, to feedlots, to packers. The cattle production system is particularly interdependent with the transportation system, as cattle and feed need to be moved through production phases. Although this interdependence enables the economic functioning of the interdependent system, it also brings vulnerabilities to the system amplifying disease spreading and natural disaster consequences. Taking southwest Kansas as a study area, we explicitly model the beef cattle industry and the transportation industry as two independent but interconnected industries through agent-based modeling. Since cattle and truck movement data are scarce due to privacy concerns, we first generate cattle and truck movement data among production locations under normal operating conditions. We then assess the system robustness by constructing hypothetical disruptions in the cattle industry and in the transportation industry. The simulation results show that the interdependent system is robust to random failures but vulnerable to the targeted shutdown of cattle premises or truck premises. In addition, we observe that disruptions in the trucks serving packers have the worst impact on cattle production, as compared to other transportation disruptions. In disaster preparations, policymakers and system designers need to consider vulnerabilities caused by the interdependent infrastructure and pay particular attention to one of its critical components, meat packers.