Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China
Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abb4557
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发表时间：
2020-05-15
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Brockmann, Dirk
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Maier, Benjamin F.;Brockmann, Dirk
最近在中国大陆爆发的2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的特点是，在疫情的早期阶段，确诊病例出现了明显的亚指数增长，与预期的无约束疫情最初的指数增长形成鲜明对比。我们表明，这种影响可以解释为有效地耗尽易感人口的遏制政策的直接后果。为此，我们引入了一个简约模型，该模型既可以捕获有症状感染个体的隔离，也可以捕获响应遏制政策或行为变化的群体范围内的隔离实践，并表明该模型准确地捕获了观察到的生长行为。本文提供的见解可能有助于仔细实施遏制战略，以应对正在发生的COVID-19二次暴发或未来类似的其他突发传染病暴发。
The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China was characterized by a distinctive subexponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting with an initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak. We show that this effect can be explained as a direct consequence of containment policies that effectively deplete the susceptible population. To this end, we introduce a parsimonious model that captures both quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals, as well as population-wide isolation practices in response to containment policies or behavioral changes, and show that the model captures the observed growth behavior accurately. The insights provided here may aid the careful implementation of containment strategies for ongoing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent infectious diseases.