Seed Sourcing Strategies Considering Climate Change Forecasts: A Practical Test in Scots Pine
Seed Sourcing Strategies Considering Climate Change Forecasts: A Practical Test in Scots Pine
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DOI：
10.3390/f11111222
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发表时间：
2020-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Alia, Ricardo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Notivol, Eduardo;Santos-del-Blanco, Luis;Alia, Ricardo
研究重点：我们实验测试了不同的种子采购策略（本地，预测，气候预测，气候调整，复合和混合）下的气候变化高排放的情况下，使用苏格兰松多地点种源测试。背景和目标：迫切需要保护遗传资源，支持针叶树种在面临预期变化和威胁时的复原力。已经提出了种子采购战略，以最大限度地提高我们森林未来的适应能力和复原力。然而，由于方法上的限制，这些建议尚待检验，特别是在森林树木等长寿生物中。此外，有些方法依赖于从符合场址未来条件的人口中转移材料。然而，在物种的后边缘，一些特定的问题（高碎片化，高遗传分化，遗传漂变的作用）挑战了其中一些方法的理论预期。材料和方法：我们使用了苏格兰松多站点种源测试，包括17个种源覆盖的分布范围内的物种在西班牙测试的五个代表性的网站。我们在种植后5年、10年和15年测量了树高、直径和存活率。在去除立地内环境影响后，利用种源试验的材料模拟50株的种群，模拟不同的种子来源策略。结果如下：我们发现，本地和预测的方法表现得更好的方法的基础上选择未来的气候匹配策略（预测气候和气候调整）和那些结合几个种子来源（复合和混合种子采购策略）。结论：尽管理论上的预期，苏格兰松，在其分布的后边缘的森林树种，种子采购方法的基础上气候匹配或种子来源的组合不执行比传统的本地或预测方法更好，或者他们是不可行的，因为缺乏未来的气候匹配的人口。
Research Highlights: We experimentally tested different seed sourcing strategies (local, predictive, climate-predictive, climate-adjusted, composite and admixture) under a climate change high emissions scenario using a Scots pine multi-site provenance test. Background and Objectives: There is an urgent need to conserve genetic resources and to support resilience of conifer species facing expected changes and threats. Seed sourcing strategies have been proposed to maximize the future adaptation and resilience of our forests. However, these proposals are yet to be tested, especially in long-lived organisms as forest trees, due to methodological constraints. In addition, some methods rely on the transfer of material from populations matching the future conditions of the sites. However, at the rear edge of the species, some specific problems (high fragmentation, high genetic differentiation, role of genetic drift) challenge the theoretical expectations of some of these methods. Materials and Methods: We used a Scots pine multi-site provenance test, consisting of seventeen provenances covering the distribution range of the species in Spain tested in five representative sites. We measured height, diameter and survival at 5, 10 and 15 years after planting. We simulated populations of 50 trees by bootstrapping material of the provenance test after removing the intra-site environmental effects, simulating different seed sourcing strategies. Results: We found that local and predictive methods behaved better than methods based on the selection of future climate-matching strategies (predictive-climate and climate-adjusted) and those combining several seed sources (composite and admixture seed sourcing strategies). Conclusions: Despite the theoretical expectations, for Scots pine, a forest tree species at its rear edge of its distribution, seed-sourcing methods based on climate matching or a combination of seed sources do not perform better than traditional local or predictive methods or they are not feasible because of the lack of future climate-matching populations.