Study of the Decadal Predictability of Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature Based on Observations
Study of the Decadal Predictability of Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature Based on Observations
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0999.1
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发表时间：
2022-11
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Xiaoqin Yan;Youmin Tang;Dejian Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiaoqin Yan;Youmin Tang;Dejian Yang
地中海海温（SST）的变化对地中海地区和偏远地区都有深远的影响。以往的研究表明，地中海海温具有显著的年代际变化，与大西洋多年代际变化（AMV）相当。然而，很少有研究讨论基于观测的地中海海温年代际可预测性的特征和来源。本文首次利用观测资料揭示了地中海海温的年代际可预测性是由外部强迫和内部变率共同贡献的，而地中海东部冬季平均海温的年代际可预测性主要是由内部变率贡献的。此外，与北大西洋亚极区相比，CWM和EM的地表温度持续性都非常显著，而北大西洋亚极区被广泛认为具有最可预测的年代际地表温度。去除外部强迫影响后，地中海海温内生变化的平均预测时间在10年以上，且与与北大西洋涛动强迫积累密切相关的地中海海温的多年代际变率密切相关。
Sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the Mediterranean Sea have profound impacts on both the Mediterranean regions and remote areas. Previous studies show that the Mediterranean SST has significant decadal variability that is comparable with the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). However, few studies have discussed the characteristics and sources of the decadal predictability of Mediterranean SST based on observations. Here for the first time we use observational datasets to reveal that the decadal predictability of Mediterranean SST is contributed by both external forcings and internal variability for both annual and seasonal means, except that the decadal predictability of the winter mean SST in the eastern Mediterranean is mostly contributed by only internal variability. Besides, the persistence of surface temperature in both CWM and EM is quite significant even in contrast with that in the subpolar North Atlantic, which is widely regarded to have the most predictable surface temperature on decadal time scale. After the impacts of external forcings are removed, the average prediction time of internally generated Mediterranean SST variations is more than 10 years and closely associated with multidecadal variability of the Mediterranean SST that is closely related to the accumulated North Atlantic Oscillation forcing.