Predicting the effects of perturbations on ecological communities: what can qualitative models offer?
Predicting the effects of perturbations on ecological communities: what can qualitative models offer?
复制标题
预测扰动对生态群落的影响：定性模型可以提供什么？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Veltman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Ramsey;C. Veltman
总结
1
扰动对相互作用物种群落的影响的定量预测往往被证明是困难的。然而，如果精确的预测是不是一个要求，然后定性模型的社区动态提供了一种替代方法来预测物种对扰动的反应。
2
我们使用了两种定性建模方法来预测的影响捕食者控制的濒危新西兰鸟类，北岛kokako的羽化率。第一种方法是基于循环分析，并提供了对物种丰度变化的可能方向的预测，以单一物种的扰动。第二种方法，“模糊互动网络”，使用模糊逻辑的框架内的模糊认知地图提供的物种丰度的扰动变化的可能幅度的预测。
3
使用这两种方法，我们预测的质量变化的平衡kokako羽翼丰满率下的各种制度的单一和多物种的捕食者控制（船鼠，刷尾负鼠和白鼬）。单种控制不足以将羽化率从“低”提升到“中等”。然而，同时控制船鼠和负鼠的影响最大的羽翼丰满率相比，任何其他组合的船鼠控制白鼬丰度的额外间接影响的结果。
4
我们提出了定性建模的社区动态作为一种方法，适合于预测扰动的影响，在复杂的生态社区，可以封装不同来源的知识，食物网的相互作用。我们认为，这些方法是一套有用的启发式工具，可用于提出可检验的假设生态系统功能，可以补充现有的统计和定量建模方法。
Summary
1
Quantitative predictions of the effects of perturbations on communities of interacting species have often proved to be difficult. However, if precise predictions are not a requirement then qualitative models of community dynamics offer an alternative method for predicting species responses to perturbations.
2
We used two qualitative modelling approaches to predict the effects of predator control on the fledging rate of an endangered New Zealand bird, the North Island kokako. The first approach was based on loop analysis and provided predictions on the probable direction of change in species abundances to single species perturbations. The second approach, ‘fuzzy interaction webs’, used fuzzy logic in the framework of a fuzzy cognitive map to provide predictions on the probable magnitude of change in species abundances to perturbations.
3
Using both methods, we predicted the qualitative change in the equilibrium fledging rates of kokako under various regimes of single- and multispecies predator control (ship rats, brushtail possums and stoats). Single species control was insufficient to lift the fledging rate from ‘low’ to ‘moderate’. However, simultaneous control of both ship rats and possums had the greatest influence on the fledging rates compared with any other combination as a result of the additional indirect effect of ship rat control on stoat abundance.
4
We propose qualitative modelling of community dynamics as a method suitable for predicting the effects of perturbations in complex ecological communities that can encapsulate diverse sources of knowledge about food web interactions. We believe that these methods are a useful set of heuristic tools that can be used to propose testable hypotheses about ecosystem functioning that can complement existing statistical and quantitative modelling approaches.