Extratropical forests increasingly at risk due to lightning fires
Extratropical forests increasingly at risk due to lightning fires
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DOI：
10.1038/s41561-023-01322-z
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发表时间：
2023-11
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Thomas A. J. Janssen;Matthew W. Jones;D. Finney;G. R. van der Werf;Dave van Wees;Wenxuan Xu;S. Veraverbeke
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文献类型：
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作者：
Thomas A. J. Janssen;Matthew W. Jones;D. Finney;G. R. van der Werf;Dave van Wees;Wenxuan Xu;S. Veraverbeke
火可以由人点燃，也可以由自然原因点燃，几乎完全是雷击。在评估不断变化的社会经济和气候条件对火灾活动的影响时，区分闪电和人为火灾至关重要。在这里，我们使用来自世界七个地区的火灾点火位置、原因和燃烧面积的参考数据，通过机器学习的方法获得闪电和人为点火作为主要火灾点火源的全球属性。我们表明，目前在温带完好的森林中，77%的烧毁面积(不确定度表示为1个标准差 = 为8%)来自闪电，这些地区每升温1度，可能会经历11%至31%的闪电。温带森林对于碳储存具有全球重要性。它们目前经历了与火灾相关的高森林损失，单位面积的火灾排放量位居地球前列。因此，未来完整森林中闪电的增加可能会加剧气候变化和温带野火之间的正反馈循环。
Fires can be ignited by people or by natural causes, which are almost exclusively lightning strikes. Discriminating between lightning and anthropogenic fires is paramount when estimating impacts of changing socioeconomic and climatological conditions on fire activity. Here we use reference data of fire ignition locations, cause and burned area from seven world regions in a machine-learning approach to obtain a global attribution of lightning and anthropogenic ignitions as dominant fire ignition sources. We show that 77% (uncertainty expressed as one standard deviation = 8%) of the burned area in extratropical intact forests currently stems from lightning and that these areas will probably experience 11 to 31% more lightning per degree warming. Extratropical forests are of global importance for carbon storage. They currently experience high fire-related forest losses and have, per unit area, among the largest fire emissions on Earth. Future increases in lightning in intact forest may therefore compound the positive feedback loop between climate change and extratropical wildfires.