Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model: A case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern China
Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model: A case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern China
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DOI：
10.1029/2007wr006768
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发表时间：
2009-07
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Gangsheng Wang;J. Xia;Ji Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gangsheng Wang;J. Xia;Ji Chen
潮白河流域位于中国北方，由潮、白河两大支流组成。每月观测的降水量，径流量和蒸发仪数据可用于35年（1961-1966年和1973-2001年）。使用观测到的径流量的年度时间序列，一个断点在1979年被检测到，并通过将数据集分为两个研究期间，“之前”和“之后”的时期标志着开始显着的人为改变的流量（水库和淤地坝，人口增加五倍）和显着的变化，土地利用（转换为梯田与坡地）。采用分布式时变增益模型（DTVGM）对该地区的水资源进行了评价。此外，本文使用Engeland等人（2005）使用的贝叶斯方法来评估两个不确定性来源（即，模型参数和模型结构），并用于评估的DTVGM的潮白河流域的性能。比较13年（1961-1966年和1973-1979年）的年平均降水量，潮、白河流域第二时段（1980-2001年）的年平均降水量分别减少了5.4%和4.9%。然而，相关的年径流量分别减少了40.3%和52.8%，比降水量的下降幅度更大。通过月模型模拟和定变法确定，潮（白）河径流量减少的原因中，气候变化占35%（31%），人类活动占68%（70%）。因此，与气候相比，人类活动对潮白河流域径流量的影响更大。这项研究增强了我们对气候变化和人类活动对径流的相对作用的理解。
The Chaobai River basin in northern China consists of two major tributaries, the Chao River and Bai River. Monthly observations of precipitation, streamflow, and panevaporation data are available for 35 years (1961–1966 and 1973–2001). Using the annual time series of the observed streamflow, one break point at 1979 is detected and is adopted to divide the data set into two study periods, the “before” and “after” periods marking the onset of significant anthropogenic alteration of the flow (reservoirs and silt retention dams, five times increase in population) and significant changes in land use (conversion to terraced fields versus sloping fields). The distributed time‐variant gain model (DTVGM) was used to evaluate the water resources of the area. Furthermore, the Bayesian method used by Engeland et al. (2005) was used in this paper to evaluate two uncertainty sources (i.e., the model parameter and model structure) and for assessing the DTVGM's performance over the Chaobai River basin. Comparing the annual precipitation means over 13 years (1961–1966 and 1973–1979), the means of the second period (1980–2001) decreased by 5.4% and 4.9% in the Chao River and Bai River basins, respectively. However, the related annual runoff decreased by 40.3% and 52.8%, respectively, a much greater decline than exhibited by precipitation. Through the monthly model simulation and the fixing‐changing method, it is determined that decreases in runoff between the two periods can be attributed to 35% (31%) from climate variations and 68% (70%) from human activities in the Chao River (Bai River). Thus, human impact exerts a dominant influence upon runoff decline in the Chaobai River basin compared to climate. This study enhances our understanding of the relative roles of climate variations and human activities on runoff.