Prevalence estimates as priors: Juror characteristics, perceived base rates, and verdicts in cases reliant on complainant and defendant testimony
Prevalence estimates as priors: Juror characteristics, perceived base rates, and verdicts in cases reliant on complainant and defendant testimony
复制标题
先验的患病率估计：陪审员特征、感知基本率以及依赖原告和被告证词的案件的判决
DOI：
10.1002/acp.3978
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Helm R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Helm R
陪审员通常必须决定他们是否相信原告或被告对事件的描述。然而，证词中线索的相对模糊性造成了陪审员评估可能差异很大的情况。因此，在严重依赖证词的案件中，陪审员的特征特别有可能与判决相关联，理解这些关联非常重要。本研究探讨了两个陪审员的特征之间的关系性别和文化世界观和判决在两个这样的情况下，和潜在的这些关系被解释的差异，在感知流行的被指控的事件作为先验概率判断。正如预测的那样，结果显示性别和文化世界观和判决之间的显着关系，并表明这些关系是由潜在的患病率估计的差异介导的。这些发现对理解陪审员特征与裁决之间的关联以及相关政策具有重要意义。
Jurors often have to make decisions about whether they believe a complainant's or defendant's account of an event. However, the relative ambiguity of cues in testimony creates a situation where juror evaluations can vary significantly. As a result, in cases heavily reliant on testimony there is a particular likelihood that juror characteristics will be associated with verdicts, and it is important to understand these associations. This research investigates the relationships between two juror characteristics—gender and cultural worldviews—and verdicts in two such cases, and the potential for those relationships to be explained by differences in perceived prevalence of alleged events acting as prior probability judgements. As predicted, results show significant relationships between gender and cultural worldview and verdicts and show that these relationships are mediated by differences in underlying prevalence estimates. These findings have important implications for understanding associations between juror characteristics and verdicts, and related policy.