Prediction of human emergency behavior and their mobility following large-scale disaster
Prediction of human emergency behavior and their mobility following large-scale disaster
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DOI：
10.1145/2623330.2623628
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发表时间：
2014-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Xuan Song;Quanshi Zhang;Y. Sekimoto;R. Shibasaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xuan Song;Quanshi Zhang;Y. Sekimoto;R. Shibasaki
在过去几十年中，自然灾害的频率和强度大大增加，预计这一趋势将继续下去。面对这些可能和意外的灾害，准确预测人类的应急行为及其流动性将成为规划有效的人道主义救援、灾害管理和长期社会重建的关键问题。在本文中，我们建立了一个大型的人类流动性数据库(一年内160万用户的GPS记录)和几个不同的数据集，以捕捉和分析日本东部大地震和福岛核事故后人类的紧急行为及其流动性。基于我们对这些数据的实证分析，我们发现，人类在大规模灾难后的行为及其流动性有时与他们在正常情况下的流动模式相关，也受到他们的社会关系、灾害强度、破坏程度、政府指定的避难所、新闻报道、大量人口流动等因素的影响。在这些发现的基础上，我们建立了一个考虑这些因素的人类行为模型，用于准确预测人类在大规模灾难后的紧急行为及其流动性。实验结果和验证证明了我们行为模型的有效性，并表明人类在灾难期间的行为和他们的行动可能比之前认为的更可预测。
The frequency and intensity of natural disasters has significantly increased over the past decades and this trend is predicted to continue. Facing these possible and unexpected disasters, accurately predicting human emergency behavior and their mobility will become the critical issue for planning effective humanitarian relief, disaster management, and long-term societal reconstruction. In this paper, we build up a large human mobility database (GPS records of 1.6 million users over one year) and several different datasets to capture and analyze human emergency behavior and their mobility following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident. Based on our empirical analysis through these data, we find that human behavior and their mobility following large-scale disaster sometimes correlate with their mobility patterns during normal times, and are also highly impacted by their social relationship, intensity of disaster, damage level, government appointed shelters, news reporting, large population flow and etc. On the basis of these findings, we develop a model of human behavior that takes into account these factors for accurately predicting human emergency behavior and their mobility following large-scale disaster. The experimental results and validations demonstrate the efficiency of our behavior model, and suggest that human behavior and their movements during disasters may be significantly more predictable than previously thought.