Synthesizing forecasts to inform decision‐making and advance ecological theory
Synthesizing forecasts to inform decision‐making and advance ecological theory
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DOI：
10.1111/2041-210x.14070
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发表时间：
2023-03
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
S. Record;C. Boettiger;C. Rollinson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Record;C. Boettiger;C. Rollinson
自1988年政府间气候变化专门委员会成立以来，越来越多的科学共识认为，人类已经改变了地球环境，人类的决定有可能减轻或加剧未来全球变化的影响（政府间气候变化专门委员会，2022年）。面对广泛的环境变化，社会需要信息来做出合理的决策。生态预报提供了关于生态系统及其服务如何在不同环境条件发生之前对其作出反应并考虑备选管理方案的信息。1990年，IPCC发布了第一份报告，呼吁更好地了解气候变化的未来影响。此后，专注于预测的生态出版物数量呈指数级增长（图1）。生态学中预测生态系统变化的概念并不新鲜（例如Clark et al., 2001; Hodgson, 1932）。然而，随着气候变化背景下关注预测的生态学论文数量的增加，来自各个分支学科的生态学家越来越关注预测的各个方面。古生态学家承认，在使用IPCC提出的预测范围时，我们预测非模拟气候条件的能力是有限的（例如，预测未来60 - 80年的条件；Williams & Jackson, 2007）。应用生态学家和理论生态学家分别质疑长期预测在推进决策和生态理论方面的效用（Houlahan et al., 2017; Mouquet et al., 2015）。与此同时，生态学家也认识到短期迭代预测的变革潜力，使生态预测与决策更相关
Since the inception of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1988, there has been growing scientific consensus that humans have modified the Earth's environment and that human decisions have the potential to mitigate or exacerbate the effects of future global change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2022). In the face of widespread environmental change, society needs information to make sound decisions. Ecological forecasts provide such information about how ecosystems and their services may respond to different environmental conditions before they happen and considering alternative management scenarios. Following the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 that called for a better understanding of the future effects of climatic change, the number of ecological publications focused on forecasting increased exponentially (Figure 1). The notion of forecasting ecosystem change in ecology is not new (e.g. Clark et al., 2001; Hodgson, 1932). However, as the number of ecological papers focused on forecasting grew in the context of climatic change, ecologists from across subdisciplines became increasingly concerned with various aspects of forecasting. Paleoecologists acknowledged the limits of our ability to forecast into nonanalog climatic conditions when using forecast horizons suggested by the IPCC (e.g. anticipating conditions 60– 80 years into the future; Williams & Jackson, 2007). Applied and theoretical ecologists questioned the utility of longterm forecasts for advancing decisionmaking and ecological theory, respectively (Houlahan et al., 2017; Mouquet et al., 2015). At the same time as these concerns, ecologists recognized the transformative potential of nearterm, iterative forecasting for making ecological forecasts more relevant to decision