A Stochastic Approach for Predicting the Profitability of Bioenergy Grasses
A Stochastic Approach for Predicting the Profitability of Bioenergy Grasses
复制标题
预测生物能源草盈利能力的随机方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Sudduth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Joseph P. Dolginow;R. Massey;N. Kitchen;D. B. Myers;K. Sudduth
柳枝稷和芒属植物（Miscanthus × Lactaceus）具有满足对可再生能源原料日益增长的需求的潜力。在生产者投资种植这些作物之前，他们需要对潜在利润进行可靠的估计。本研究的目的是研究种植这些多年生生物能源草的盈利能力，将不确定的价格和产量的模型。该模型比较了五种作物（柳枝稷、芒草、玉米[玉米L.]，大豆[Glycine max（L.）梅尔。]和高羊茅牧场[Festuca arundinacea]}在东北部密苏里州常见的三种土壤剖面上：高地、未侵蚀土壤、侵蚀土壤和河漫滩土壤。分析了美国农业部生物质作物援助计划（BCAP）和作物保险对种植柳枝稷和芒草的影响。实际粮食产量，农业土地管理替代方案与数值评估标准（ALMANAC）模拟草产量，粮食和农业政策研究所（FAPRI）的基准价格被用来模拟利润。使用累积分布函数（CDF）比较结果。玉米生产总是由对其他作物持所有风险态度的决策者选择。芒草总是比柳枝稷更有利可图。根据CDF，多年生生物能源草更有可能种植在目前生产牧草的侵蚀土壤中;然而，也有可能种植在目前种植大豆的侵蚀农田上。最后，玉米和大豆的作物保险可能会影响为风险规避生产者种植多年生生物能源草的决定。
Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) have potential to meet a growing demand for renewable energy feedstock. Before producers will invest in planting these crops, they need credible estimations of the potential profits. The objective of this study was to examine profitability of growing these perennial bioenergy grasses, incorporating uncertain prices and yields in the model. The model compared the profitability of five crops {switchgrass, miscanthus, corn [ Zea mays L.], soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] and tall fescue pasture [Festuca arundinacea]} on three soil profiles common in north eastern Missouri: an upland, noneroded soil, an eroded soil, and floodplain soil. The effect of the USDA Biomass Crop Assistance Program (BCAP) and crop insurance on the decision to grow switchgrass and miscanthus was analyzed. Actual grain yields, Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) modeled grass yields, and Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) baseline prices were used to simulate profit. The results were compared using cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). Corn production was always chosen by decision makers of all risk attitudes to other crops. Miscanthus was always more profitable than switchgrass. Based on the CDFs, perennial bioenergy grasses were more likely to be planted in eroded soils currently in pasture production; however, there were scenarios in which they could be planted on eroded cropland currently planted to soybean. Lastly, crop insurance for corn and soybean could affect the decision to plant perennial bioenergy grasses for risk averse producers.