Multilateral trade and agricultural policy reforms in sugar markets
Multilateral trade and agricultural policy reforms in sugar markets
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1477-9552.2006.00030.x
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发表时间：
2006-03-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Beghin, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Elobeld, Amani;Beghin, John
我们使用根据 2002 年市场数据和现行政策校准的部分均衡国际糖业模型，分析了贸易自由化、取消生产补贴和消除消费扭曲对世界糖业市场的影响。仅消除贸易扭曲就导致 2011/2012 年价格相对于基线上涨 27%，而消除所有贸易和生产扭曲则导致 2011/2012 年价格上涨 48%。贸易总量温和扩张，但生产区位和贸易格局发生较大变化。经济合作与发展组织（OECD）保护主义国家（欧盟、日本、美国）经历了进口扩张或出口减少以及不受约束的市场生产大幅收缩。经合组织国家（澳大利亚）和非经合组织国家（巴西、古巴）的竞争性生产商，甚至一些受保护的生产商（印度尼西亚、土耳其），都会在所有扭曲消除后扩大生产。消费扭曲对世界市场和生产地点产生边际影响。我们在高度保护的经合组织国家增加市场准入的压力日益增大以及对非经合组织国家的影响的背景下讨论了这些结果的重要性。
We analyse the impact of trade liberalisation, removal of production subsidies and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial-equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48% increase in 2011/2012 relative to the baseline. Aggregate trade expands moderately , but location of production and trade patterns change substantially. Protectionist Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (the EU, Japan, the US) experience cut import expansion or export reduction and a significant contraction of production in unfettered markets. Competitive producers in both OECD countries (Australia) and non-OECD countries (Brazil, Cuba), and even some protected producers (Indonesia, Turkey), expand production when all distortions are removed. Consumption distortions have marginal impacts on world markets and the location of production. We discuss the significance of these results in the context of mounting pressures to increase market access in highly protected OECD countries and the impact on non-OECD countries.